Value
6.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
AB · Why this verdict
Why AllianceBernstein Holding (AB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AllianceBernstein Holding is a high-quality, best-in-class-margin asset manager with a 9/9 Piotroski score and a 9.8% dividend, but price is above the analyst target and trades below a flat 200-day average after a death cross.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AB has best-in-class margins versus peers and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 8.6. Quality breakdown | The quality score should stay above 8.0 with margins holding over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAs a fee-based asset manager, margins depend on market levels and could compress in a downturn. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x and PEG of 0.45 and pays a 9.8% dividend. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained and the forward P/E should stay below 12x. | →Stable |
| CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5, so a payout of 9.8% could be cut if distributable earnings fall. | ||
Price of $35.09 is above the analyst target of $32.07 (upside_pct -8.6%), giving negative reward-to-risk of -1.72. Warnings | Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or price should consolidate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings of $0.88 versus $0.85 expected suggests fundamentals could justify higher targets. | ||
Price is below a flat 200-day average after a death cross, with falling OBV and momentum at only 4.1/10. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is improving (7.9) and RSI is mid-range at 54, indicating a recovery setup rather than a breakdown. | ||
Recent earnings results are mixed, with a small beat of $0.88 versus $0.85, a miss, and an in-line quarter in the last four reports. Earnings | EPS should beat estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSurprises are all within about 3%, so results are tightly predictable rather than a sign of weakness. | ||
AB has best-in-class margins versus peers and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, supporting a quality score of 8.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should stay above 8.0 with margins holding over the next 12 months.
CounterAs a fee-based asset manager, margins depend on market levels and could compress in a downturn.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.5x and PEG of 0.45 and pays a 9.8% dividend.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained and the forward P/E should stay below 12x.
CounterDividend safety scores only 5.5, so a payout of 9.8% could be cut if distributable earnings fall.
Price of $35.09 is above the analyst target of $32.07 (upside_pct -8.6%), giving negative reward-to-risk of -1.72.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised toward the current price, or price should consolidate.
CounterEarnings of $0.88 versus $0.85 expected suggests fundamentals could justify higher targets.
Price is below a flat 200-day average after a death cross, with falling OBV and momentum at only 4.1/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5.
CounterMACD is improving (7.9) and RSI is mid-range at 54, indicating a recovery setup rather than a breakdown.
Recent earnings results are mixed, with a small beat of $0.88 versus $0.85, a miss, and an in-line quarter in the last four reports.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterSurprises are all within about 3%, so results are tightly predictable rather than a sign of weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 9.6 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 8.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 9.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.6>=7.5+momentum=5.9>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-1.90
Upside
-9.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.6; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, and Insider at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Sentiment at 5.2, and Catalyst at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.90 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins Quality
Trip ifQuality score falls below 7.0 from current 8.6.
- P2Cheap Valuation High Dividend
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 6% from current 9.8% due to a payout cut.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises more than 20% above the $32.07 analyst target without target increases.
- P4Weak Trend Death Cross
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from current 4.1.
- P5Mixed Earnings Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.