Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
AAON · Why this verdict
Why AAON (AAON) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AAON is an industry growth leader (101% YoY growth) with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and 62% analyst upside, but it sits in a confirmed downtrend after a 55% drawdown and shows a deeply negative cash conversion red flag.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is exceptionally strong at 101% YoY, ranking as an industry growth leader with a forward P/E of 18.9x and PEG of 0.78. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of 101% is unlikely to be sustained and may reflect a one-time step-up from a low base. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged RED with FCF/NI of -134%, so reported profits are not converting to cash, holding the quality score at 5.0. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should turn positive and rise above 50% as working capital normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy capacity investment during a growth surge can temporarily depress free cash flow, and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9. | ||
Momentum is weak at 2.9/10 with RSI at 28, price below the 200-day average and falling OBV, after a 55% drawdown from the 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 if the oversold bounce develops. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA death cross and falling OBV indicate persistent distribution that can continue well past oversold readings. | ||
The analyst target of $109.22 implies 62.1% upside from $67.40 against 14.3% downside (reward-to-risk 4.35), with earnings due in 8 days after beating 3 of 4 quarters. Targets | Price should move toward the analyst target if the upcoming report extends the beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (4.0), which dampens the reliability of the target. | ||
Insiders made a small purchase of $109,584 (0.002% of market cap), which is negligible but not a sell signal. Insider breakdown | Insider activity should remain net neutral or buying. | →Stable |
| CounterAt 0.002% of market cap the buying is too small to signal real conviction. | ||
Growth is exceptionally strong at 101% YoY, ranking as an industry growth leader with a forward P/E of 18.9x and PEG of 0.78.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth of 101% is unlikely to be sustained and may reflect a one-time step-up from a low base.
Earnings quality is flagged RED with FCF/NI of -134%, so reported profits are not converting to cash, holding the quality score at 5.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should turn positive and rise above 50% as working capital normalizes.
CounterHeavy capacity investment during a growth surge can temporarily depress free cash flow, and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 7/9.
Momentum is weak at 2.9/10 with RSI at 28, price below the 200-day average and falling OBV, after a 55% drawdown from the 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 if the oversold bounce develops.
CounterA death cross and falling OBV indicate persistent distribution that can continue well past oversold readings.
The analyst target of $109.22 implies 62.1% upside from $67.40 against 14.3% downside (reward-to-risk 4.35), with earnings due in 8 days after beating 3 of 4 quarters.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst target if the upcoming report extends the beat streak.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (4.0), which dampens the reliability of the target.
Insiders made a small purchase of $109,584 (0.002% of market cap), which is negligible but not a sell signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider activity should remain net neutral or buying.
CounterAt 0.002% of market cap the buying is too small to signal real conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 5.5 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -134% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 101% YoY
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $109,584 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.7 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.64
- ▸High IV: 104%
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.46
Upside
+58.1%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.46 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.3, and Peer rank at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY.
- P2Earnings Quality Cash Red Flag
Trip ifFCF/NI stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Oversold Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 2.0 from current 2.9.
- P4Analyst Upside And Earnings Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the upcoming report and the next quarter.
- P5Minor Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap in 90 days.