AAON (AAON) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.83
- Estimate
- $0.58
- Surprise
- +43.5%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $707.4M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.2 → 6.2/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
AAON (AAON) beat the $0.58 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.83 — a large 43.5% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Sell (6.2/10) to Hold at 6.2/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates AAON Hold at 6.5/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +43.5% surprise compares with a +32.8% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- Positive news sentiment (+0.80)
What argues against it
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)
- Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
- Elevated risk factors
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $77.03
- Price target
- $109.22
- Stop
- $71.64
- Upside to target
- +41.8%
- Reward-to-risk
- 2.8:1
The stock trades at 33.1× trailing but 16.8× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: trading volume is running 1.7× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-10 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
AAON at TrendMatrix's latest read
Industrial quarters are order-book stories — backlog and book-to-bill color how the market reads the reported number.
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $5.18B
- P/E (fwd)
- 16.8
- P/E (ttm)
- 33.1
- 52-week range
- $53.13–$150.46
- Off 52-week high
- 48.8%
- RSI (14)
- 51
- Volume vs avg
- 1.68×
- Score today
- 6.5/10