Zillow Group's Class C shares trade at a 73% analyst upside with exceptional free cash flow conversion of 468%, but the stock is in a confirmed falling-knife technical breakdown with RSI at 33 and a -9.6% monthly moving average slope — making the timing of entry the critical risk.
Thesis pillars
- Falling Knife Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
- 468pct Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Residential Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026· older than 90 days
Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.45: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below long-term trend.
Zillow Group runs the most-visited U.S. residential real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and agents across Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Residential advertising and Zillow Home Loans generated 66% of 2025 revenue; Rentals contributed 24%, with 9.6... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.45: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
Zillow Group's 2025 revenue split between Residential at 66% and Rentals at 24%, with Rentals growing 39% year over year. The platform attracted approximately 9.6 billion visits in 2025, peaking at 259 million unique users in July 2025, predominantly across Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Zillow Home Loans, available in 49 states and Washington D.C., originates mortgages for sale on the secondary market, while the Rentals marketplace reached 2.4 million average monthly active listings at December 31, 2025.
Residential revenue, the largest segment, comes from advertising sold to real estate agents and brokerages through two models: Zillow Preferred, an invite-only pay-when-you-close program for top agent teams; and market-based pricing, a subscription model where connections are distributed proportionally to advertising share within a zip code. Zillow also offers Zillow Pro, a membership bundling tools and analytics for growth-oriented agents. Rentals revenue comes from advertising for multifamily property managers and longtail landlords — properties with fewer than 25 units — with listing syndication extending inventory through Realtor.com and Redfin and integrations with AppFolio and Esusu. The 10-K notes that revenue from real estate partners is primarily short-term, with partners able to reduce or end commitments with little advance notice. Variable-consideration uncertainty attaches to Zillow Preferred because fees depend on transaction close rates estimated from historical conversion data, and the 10-K flags that this estimation methodology may be inaccurate.
Show full overview
MLS compliance is the structural constraint underpinning Zillow's listing access: the company's MLS member subsidiaries must comply with hundreds of individual MLS rulebooks, with possible sanctions including monetary fines or data-access termination for non-compliance. Separately, the NAR Settlement finalized March 15, 2024, altered commission-negotiation practices industry-wide, and the Department of Justice has continued its antitrust investigation into NAR. The 10-K notes that further DOJ action — including repeal or amendment of existing rules — could reduce agent-commission pools that fund Zillow's Residential advertising revenue.
See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
From Zillow Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Zillow Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why AppLovin Shares Are Trading Higher By Over 16%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Zillow Stock Tumbles on Q3 Double Miss, Weak Guidance — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Is Zillow Group Inc (ZG) a Bargain After 4.0% Drop? GF Value Says Undervalued - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Will Zillow (ZG) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Zillow Group (ZG) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductResidential revenue66%10-K Item 1A: 'Residential revenue accounted for 66% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWProductRentals revenue24%10-K Item 1A: 'Rentals revenue accounted for 24% of total revenue for the same period'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.45: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $32.04. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $41.03 (+19.1% upside). Prior stop was $32.04. Stop-loss: $32.04.
Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0).
Zillow Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 149.8 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts rate ZG, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $46.
What does Zillow Group, Inc. do?Zillow Group runs the most-visited U.S. residential real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and...
Zillow Group runs the most-visited U.S. residential real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and agents across Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Residential advertising and Zillow Home Loans generated 66% of 2025 revenue; Rentals contributed 24%, with 9.6 billion visits and 7,068 employees at year-end.