Zillow Group's Class C shares trade at a 73% analyst upside with exceptional free cash flow conversion of 468%, but the stock is in a confirmed falling-knife technical breakdown with RSI at 33 and a -9.6% monthly moving average slope — making the timing of entry the critical risk.
Thesis pillars
- Falling Knife Confirmed Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- 468pct Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Residential Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Zillow Group, Inc. (ZG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Zillow Group runs the most-visited U.S. residential real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and agents across Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Residential advertising and Zillow Home Loans generated 66% of 2025 revenue; Rentals contributed 24%, with 9.6... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
Zillow Group's 2025 revenue split between Residential at 66% and Rentals at 24%, with Rentals growing 39% year over year. The platform attracted approximately 9.6 billion visits in 2025, peaking at 259 million unique users in July 2025, predominantly across Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Zillow Home Loans, available in 49 states and Washington D.C., originates mortgages for sale on the secondary market, while the Rentals marketplace reached 2.4 million average monthly active listings at December 31, 2025.
Residential revenue, the largest segment, comes from advertising sold to real estate agents and brokerages through two models: Zillow Preferred, an invite-only pay-when-you-close program for top agent teams; and market-based pricing, a subscription model where connections are distributed proportionally to advertising share within a zip code. Zillow also offers Zillow Pro, a membership bundling tools and analytics for growth-oriented agents. Rentals revenue comes from advertising for multifamily property managers and longtail landlords — properties with fewer than 25 units — with listing syndication extending inventory through Realtor.com and Redfin and integrations with AppFolio and Esusu. The 10-K notes that revenue from real estate partners is primarily short-term, with partners able to reduce or end commitments with little advance notice. Variable-consideration uncertainty attaches to Zillow Preferred because fees depend on transaction close rates estimated from historical conversion data, and the 10-K flags that this estimation methodology may be inaccurate.
Show full overview
MLS compliance is the structural constraint underpinning Zillow's listing access: the company's MLS member subsidiaries must comply with hundreds of individual MLS rulebooks, with possible sanctions including monetary fines or data-access termination for non-compliance. Separately, the NAR Settlement finalized March 15, 2024, altered commission-negotiation practices industry-wide, and the Department of Justice has continued its antitrust investigation into NAR. The 10-K notes that further DOJ action — including repeal or amendment of existing rules — could reduce agent-commission pools that fund Zillow's Residential advertising revenue.
See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
From Zillow Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-25Recent Developments — Zillow Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Rosen Law Firm Encourages Zillow Group, Inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation - Z, ZG - — PR Newswire negative
- NEWS ROSEN, GLOBALLY RESPECTED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages Zillow Group, Inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Ac — TMX Newsfile negative
- NEWS Zillow (ZG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Zillow Group (ZG) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Zillow (NASDAQ:ZG) Reports Q1 CY2026 In Line With Expectations - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-07-25T21:22:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductResidential revenue66%10-K Item 1A: 'Residential revenue accounted for 66% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWProductRentals revenue24%10-K Item 1A: 'Rentals revenue accounted for 24% of total revenue for the same period'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $56.33 (+82.4%), stop $28.53 (−8.2%), A.R:R 8.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $56.33 (+83.6% upside). Target $56.33 (+82.4%), stop $28.53 (−8.2%), A.R:R 8.3:1. Stop-loss: $28.53.
Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
Zillow Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 118.0 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
30 analysts cover ZG with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $63.
What does Zillow Group, Inc. do?Zillow Group runs the most-visited U.S. residential real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and...
Zillow Group runs the most-visited U.S. residential real estate marketplace, connecting buyers, sellers, renters, and agents across Zillow, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Residential advertising and Zillow Home Loans generated 66% of 2025 revenue; Rentals contributed 24%, with 9.6 billion visits and 7,068 employees at year-end.