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Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $37.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Zillow is the most visited U.S. residential real estate platform, attracting 9.6B visits in 2025 through Zillow.com, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Revenue is driven by Residential advertising to real estate agents (66% of 2025 revenue) and Rentals (24%); Zillow Home Loans provides... Read more

$37.73+49.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#19 of 27 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.31%
Stop $35.66Target $56.26(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.9:1
Analyst target$64.67+71.4%6 analysts
$56.26our TP
$37.73price
$64.67mean
$85

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $37.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Zillow Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 49%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)150.6
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$8.6B
EV/EBITDA73.0
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE1.3%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta2.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductResidential revenue66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Residential revenue accounted for 66% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMProductRentals revenue24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Rentals revenue accounted for 24% of total revenue for the same period, representing 39% growth as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.7
Value Rank
1.8
Growth Rank
6.9
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
22 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $36.76Resistance $48.44

Price Targets

$36
$56
A.Upside+49.1%
A.R:R4.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Z stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $37.73 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $35.66. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the Z stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.26 (+49.4% upside). Prior stop was $35.66. Stop-loss: $35.66.

What are the risks of investing in Z?

Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is Z overvalued or undervalued?

Zillow Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 150.6 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about Z?

30 analysts cover Z with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Zillow Group, Inc. do?Zillow is the most visited U.S. residential real estate platform, attracting 9.6B visits in 2025 through Zillow.com,...

Zillow is the most visited U.S. residential real estate platform, attracting 9.6B visits in 2025 through Zillow.com, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Revenue is driven by Residential advertising to real estate agents (66% of 2025 revenue) and Rentals (24%); Zillow Home Loans provides mortgage origination as an adjacent service.

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