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ZZillow Group, Inc.Sell5.3·$33.84-4.55%
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Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.84 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Zillow is the most visited U.S. residential real estate platform, attracting 9.6B visits in 2025 through Zillow.com, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Revenue is driven by Residential advertising to real estate agents (66% of 2025 revenue) and Rentals (24%); Zillow Home Loans provides... Read more

$33.84+61.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#19 of 27 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.52%
Stop $32.89Target $54.81(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.8:1
Analyst target$63.00+86.2%6 analysts
$54.81our TP
$33.84price
$63.00mean
$76

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.84 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 62%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)136.3
P/E (Fwd)11.7
Mkt Cap$8.1B
EV/EBITDA68.5
Profit Mgn2.3%
ROE1.3%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta1.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$130+284.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductResidential revenue66%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Residential revenue accounted for 66% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMProductRentals revenue24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Rentals revenue accounted for 24% of total revenue for the same period, representing 39% growth as compared to the year ended December 31, 2024.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.8
Quality Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
6.9

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.5
Macd
7.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 6.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $33.91Resistance $39.64

Price Targets

$33
$55
A.Upside+62.0%
A.R:R6.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Z stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.84 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.89. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the Z stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.81 (+61.5% upside). Prior stop was $32.89. Stop-loss: $32.89.

What are the risks of investing in Z?

Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is Z overvalued or undervalued?

Zillow Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 136.3 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about Z?

30 analysts cover Z with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $63.

What does Zillow Group, Inc. do?Zillow is the most visited U.S. residential real estate platform, attracting 9.6B visits in 2025 through Zillow.com,...

Zillow is the most visited U.S. residential real estate platform, attracting 9.6B visits in 2025 through Zillow.com, Trulia, and StreetEasy. Revenue is driven by Residential advertising to real estate agents (66% of 2025 revenue) and Rentals (24%); Zillow Home Loans provides mortgage origination as an adjacent service.

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