Zillow Group carries deep analyst upside of 63% and exceptional free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed death-cross technical breakdown with RSI at 32 and two recent earnings misses signal that the near-term path to realizing that upside is uncertain.
Thesis pillars
- Death Cross Technical Breakdown↓Deteriorating
- Residential Revenue Concentration↑Improving
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Zillow Group, Inc. (Z) Stock Analysis
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%).
Zillow Group runs the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States, built on a database of approximately 173 million homes to connect buyers, sellers, renters, and professionals. Revenue comes from real estate agent advertising (Residential, 66% of 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
About Zillow Group, Inc.
Zillow Group attracted 9.6 billion site visits in 2025, peaking at 259 million unique users in July, anchoring its position as the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States. The company's living database covers approximately 173 million U.S. homes, and revenue split 66% Residential (agent advertising) and 24% Rentals (property manager advertising), with Zillow Home Loans available in 49 states and the District of Columbia by year-end 2025.
Zillow monetizes its audience primarily through the Zillow Preferred pay-when-you-close program for agent partners in Enhanced Markets and subscription-based market-priced advertising outside them. Under Zillow Preferred, agents pay a performance fee only when a lead converts to a closed transaction, creating variable revenue tied to housing transaction volumes and conversion rates. For property managers, the company offers listing subscriptions, a Pay-Per-Lease product for multifamily, and Zillow Rental Manager for longtail landlords (properties with fewer than 25 units). Rentals revenue grew 39% year-over-year in 2025, driven by 2.4 million average monthly active rental listings including 72,000 multifamily properties, a 44% increase versus year-end 2024. Zillow Home Loans originates mortgages and generally sells them on the secondary market. Many real estate partner relationships carry no long-term contracts, and partners can reduce or discontinue advertising with limited notice, making revenue sensitive to housing transaction volumes.
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Commission structure changes arising from the March 2024 NAR settlement have already altered how buyers and sellers engage agents, and the Department of Justice has signaled it may pursue additional antitrust scrutiny of the National Association of REALTORS. Because Residential advertising fees paid by real estate professionals depend on agent economics and marketing budgets, durable compression of commission rates could weigh on agent advertising spending across Zillow's partner base. The 10-K explicitly states that if agent commissions are meaningfully impacted, it could reduce the number of partners in the industry, threatening the Residential segment that accounted for 66% of total revenue in 2025.
See also: Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
From Zillow Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-24Recent Developments — Zillow Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Rosen Law Firm Encourages Zillow Group, Inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation - Z, ZG - — PR Newswire negative
- NEWS Zillow Group (Z) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Keeps Their Buy Rating on Zillow Group Class A (ZG) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS ROSEN, GLOBALLY RESPECTED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages Zillow Group, Inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Ac — TMX Newsfile negative
- NEWS Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DoorDash, Zillow Group, ARM Holdings, Fortinet and more - CNBC — CNBC neutral
Generated 2026-07-25T18:07:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductResidential revenue66%10-K Item 1A: 'Residential revenue accounted for 66% of total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWProductRentals revenue24%10-K Item 1A: 'Rentals revenue accounted for 24% of total revenue for the same period'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $30.93 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $28.75. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $48.57 (+57.1% upside). Prior stop was $28.75. Stop-loss: $28.75.
Concentration risk — Product: Residential revenue (66.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
Zillow Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 123.3 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover Z with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Zillow Group, Inc. do?Zillow Group runs the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States, built on a database of...
Zillow Group runs the most visited residential real estate platform in the United States, built on a database of approximately 173 million homes to connect buyers, sellers, renters, and professionals. Revenue comes from real estate agent advertising (Residential, 66% of 2025 revenue) and rental marketplace services (Rentals, 24%), with mortgage origination through Zillow Home Loans available in 49 states. The company generated 9.6 billion site visits in 2025.