Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 5.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.36
XOM · Why this verdict
Why Exxon Mobil (XOM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
XOM trips the 'quality below floor' rule (3.8 < 4.0) and shows V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE with -2.2% upside, triggering an explicit 'engine SELL output' action_note despite a perfect 4/4 beat streak and golden-cross BREAKOUT setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality subscore of 3.8 sits below the 4.0 floor with bear_case flagging this directly plus quality.notes citing 'No competitive moat' and FCF/NI RED FLAG at 46%. Bear case (item 2) | Quality subscore must climb above 4.5 with FCF/NI improving above 60% over 2 quarters to clear the action_note exit recommendation. | →stable |
| CounterIntegrated oil majors have structurally low margins by industry norm; the quality score may be sector-mismatched and stable at this level forever. | ||
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE with current_price $154.92 above take_profit $160.41 yields -2.2% upside vs 7.7% downside — V8 explicitly flags 'Target reached'. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit re-rates above $175 (12%+ above spot) to restore positive upside. | →stable |
| CounterTP method is 'resistance' not analyst_target; a breakout above resistance could trigger fresh upside re-targeting. | ||
V9 setup_type=BREAKOUT with rationale 'Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish' and MACD component scoring 10/10 supports positive price-action regardless of valuation. Setup type | Price holds above 200-day MA and MACD stays bullish over the next 2 quarters. | →stable |
| CounterFalling OBV (volume distribution) contradicts the breakout — institutional flow is exiting while price marks higher highs. | ||
4/4 quarterly beats with avg_surprise 5.4% and catalyst.notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' indicate management consistently outperforms consensus. Earnings track record | Beat streak extends to 5/5 with the next earnings on 2026-07-31 surprising positively. | →stable |
| CounterCatalyst.notes also warns 'Yield trap: high yield but unsafe' — dividend safety component of 4.2 suggests beats may not translate to shareholder return. | ||
Risk subscore of 8.0 with put_call 10/10, beta 10/10, and debt_equity 9.3/10 shows minimal balance-sheet and volatility risk relative to the universe. Risk | Risk subscore stays above 7.5 with debt_equity component holding above 8.0 over 4 quarters. | →stable |
| CounterLow quantitative risk does not offset failing the quality floor; the action_note still says exit despite low risk. | ||
Quality subscore of 3.8 sits below the 4.0 floor with bear_case flagging this directly plus quality.notes citing 'No competitive moat' and FCF/NI RED FLAG at 46%.
→stableBear case (item 2)
- Expectation
- Quality subscore must climb above 4.5 with FCF/NI improving above 60% over 2 quarters to clear the action_note exit recommendation.
CounterIntegrated oil majors have structurally low margins by industry norm; the quality score may be sector-mismatched and stable at this level forever.
V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE with current_price $154.92 above take_profit $160.41 yields -2.2% upside vs 7.7% downside — V8 explicitly flags 'Target reached'.
→stableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit re-rates above $175 (12%+ above spot) to restore positive upside.
CounterTP method is 'resistance' not analyst_target; a breakout above resistance could trigger fresh upside re-targeting.
V9 setup_type=BREAKOUT with rationale 'Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish' and MACD component scoring 10/10 supports positive price-action regardless of valuation.
→stableSetup type
- Expectation
- Price holds above 200-day MA and MACD stays bullish over the next 2 quarters.
CounterFalling OBV (volume distribution) contradicts the breakout — institutional flow is exiting while price marks higher highs.
4/4 quarterly beats with avg_surprise 5.4% and catalyst.notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' indicate management consistently outperforms consensus.
→stableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to 5/5 with the next earnings on 2026-07-31 surprising positively.
CounterCatalyst.notes also warns 'Yield trap: high yield but unsafe' — dividend safety component of 4.2 suggests beats may not translate to shareholder return.
Risk subscore of 8.0 with put_call 10/10, beta 10/10, and debt_equity 9.3/10 shows minimal balance-sheet and volatility risk relative to the universe.
→stableRisk
- Expectation
- Risk subscore stays above 7.5 with debt_equity component holding above 8.0 over 4 quarters.
CounterLow quantitative risk does not offset failing the quality floor; the action_note still says exit despite low risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.0 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 3.7 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 46% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $507,248 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 7.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.92
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.9, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Momentum at 3.6, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality subscore of 3.8 sits below the 4.0 floor with bear_case flagging this directly plus quality.notes citing 'No competitive moat' and FCF/NI RED FLAG at 46%.
Trip ifQuality subscore stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive refreshes.
- P2V9 ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE with current_price $154.92 above take_profit $160.41 yields -2.2% upside vs 7.7% downside — V8 explicitly flags 'Target reached'.
Trip ifV9 asymmetry_ratio stays below 0 for 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P3V9 setup_type=BREAKOUT with rationale 'Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish' and MACD component scoring 10/10 supports positive price-action regardless of valuation.
Trip ifPrice closes below 200-day MA or MACD component drops below 5.0.
- P44/4 quarterly beats with avg_surprise 5.4% and catalyst.notes 'Perfect beat streak: 4Q' indicate management consistently outperforms consensus.
Trip ifEarnings miss with surprise_pct below 0% on 2026-07-31.
- P5Risk subscore of 8.0 with put_call 10/10, beta 10/10, and debt_equity 9.3/10 shows minimal balance-sheet and volatility risk relative to the universe.
Trip ifRisk subscore falls below 6.5 or debt_equity component drops below 7.0.