Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 2.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.2x
- ▸PEG: 4.67
WMT · Why this verdict
Why Walmart (WMT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WMT trips three V9 gates simultaneously (momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold), asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold), NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE) with overall score 4.9/10 and rich valuation (Forward P/E 36.6x, PEG 4.48) — the engine signals reducing position despite strong technical and Consumer Defensive sector tailwind.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Quality subscore of 4.0 with gross_margin 1.0/10, operating_margin 1.7/10, FCF/NI RED FLAG at 31%, and key_risks 'Below-average business quality' indicates thin-margin retail economics. Key risks | Quality subscore climbs above 5.0 with gross_margin component above 3.0 over 4 quarters. | →stable |
| CounterDiscount retail is structurally low-margin; the quality score may be permanently capped at this level by industry economics. | ||
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8 (bull_case[0]) layers a structural defensive bonus in the current regime. Bull case (item 1) | Consumer Defensive sector modifier stays positive (>= +0.5) across the next 4 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterSector bonus is overwhelmed by V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty (-0.5) and 3 failed V9 gates — modifier alone cannot rescue the verdict. | ||
Forward P/E 36.6x and PEG 4.48 (value.notes) with peer value_rank 1.74/10 mark WMT as one of the most expensive names in its peer set; key_risks lists 'Rich valuation' explicitly. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 25x or PEG falls below 2.5 over 4 quarters via earnings growth catching up. | →stable |
| CounterDefensive compounders persistently trade at premium multiples; mean-reversion may not occur in any reasonable timeframe. | ||
V9 gates_failed lists momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold), asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot, and NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE simultaneously — edge_type=NO_EDGE and position_size_recommendation=AVOID. Engine gate (failed) | At least 2 of 3 failed gates must clear (MOMENTUM>=4.5 AND ASYMMETRY>=1.5) within 2 quarters to restore a buy setup. | →stable |
| CounterLeadership-change news gates are time-decay items that auto-clear; momentum and asymmetry could improve quickly on a pullback. | ||
Technical subscore 9.0 with bollinger 10/10 and momentum notes 'Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity' suggests a tradable mean-reversion despite weak fundamentals. Components | Technical subscore stays >= 8.0 and RSI normalizes between 40-60 within 1 quarter. | →stable |
| CounterFalling OBV (volume distribution) and ma_position only 4.0/10 contradict the pullback-buy thesis — distribution may continue. | ||
Quality subscore of 4.0 with gross_margin 1.0/10, operating_margin 1.7/10, FCF/NI RED FLAG at 31%, and key_risks 'Below-average business quality' indicates thin-margin retail economics.
→stableKey risks
- Expectation
- Quality subscore climbs above 5.0 with gross_margin component above 3.0 over 4 quarters.
CounterDiscount retail is structurally low-margin; the quality score may be permanently capped at this level by industry economics.
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8 (bull_case[0]) layers a structural defensive bonus in the current regime.
→stableBull case (item 1)
- Expectation
- Consumer Defensive sector modifier stays positive (>= +0.5) across the next 4 refreshes.
CounterSector bonus is overwhelmed by V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty (-0.5) and 3 failed V9 gates — modifier alone cannot rescue the verdict.
Forward P/E 36.6x and PEG 4.48 (value.notes) with peer value_rank 1.74/10 mark WMT as one of the most expensive names in its peer set; key_risks lists 'Rich valuation' explicitly.
→stableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 25x or PEG falls below 2.5 over 4 quarters via earnings growth catching up.
CounterDefensive compounders persistently trade at premium multiples; mean-reversion may not occur in any reasonable timeframe.
V9 gates_failed lists momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold), asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot, and NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE simultaneously — edge_type=NO_EDGE and position_size_recommendation=AVOID.
→stableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- At least 2 of 3 failed gates must clear (MOMENTUM>=4.5 AND ASYMMETRY>=1.5) within 2 quarters to restore a buy setup.
CounterLeadership-change news gates are time-decay items that auto-clear; momentum and asymmetry could improve quickly on a pullback.
Technical subscore 9.0 with bollinger 10/10 and momentum notes 'Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity' suggests a tradable mean-reversion despite weak fundamentals.
→stableComponents
- Expectation
- Technical subscore stays >= 8.0 and RSI normalizes between 40-60 within 1 quarter.
CounterFalling OBV (volume distribution) and ma_position only 4.0/10 contradict the pullback-buy thesis — distribution may continue.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 2.5 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.3 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 9.8 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=8)
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,152,237,415 (0.122% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 1.4 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| beta | 9.1 |
| debt equity | 6.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.80
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 83.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.54
Upside
+9.5%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOVERSOLD_BOUNCE — Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.54 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.8, Sentiment at 7.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.3; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8 (bull_case[0]) layers a structural defensive bonus in the current regime.
Trip ifConsumer Defensive sector modifier turns negative (< 0) on the next refresh.
- P2Forward P/E 36.6x and PEG 4.48 (value.notes) with peer value_rank 1.74/10 mark WMT as one of the most expensive names in its peer set; key_risks lists 'Rich valuation' explicitly.
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 45x or PEG ratio rises above 5.5.
- P3Quality subscore of 4.0 with gross_margin 1.0/10, operating_margin 1.7/10, FCF/NI RED FLAG at 31%, and key_risks 'Below-average business quality' indicates thin-margin retail economics.
Trip ifQuality subscore falls below 3.5 for 2 consecutive refreshes.
- P4V9 gates_failed lists momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold), asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot, and NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE simultaneously — edge_type=NO_EDGE and position_size_recommendation=AVOID.
Trip ifMore than 3 V9 gates fail simultaneously or asymmetry_ratio falls below 0.5.
- P5Technical subscore 9.0 with bollinger 10/10 and momentum notes 'Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunity' suggests a tradable mean-reversion despite weak fundamentals.
Trip ifTechnical subscore falls below 6.0 or OBV component stays at 1.0/10 for 2 refreshes.