Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
WLDN · Why this verdict
Why Willdan Group (WLDN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Willdan Group has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 68%, supporting a favorable risk-reward profile, though near-term momentum weakness and a technical death cross require caution before adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Willdan has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of its most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 68%, suggesting the company is consistently delivering results above Street expectations. Earnings | Continued earnings beats over the next 12 months, with positive quarterly surprise percentages maintaining an average above 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe high average surprise of 68% may reflect analysts setting conservatively low bars; a reversion to normal expectations could expose underlying earnings pressure. | ||
Analyst consensus implies roughly 22% upside to the current price near $95.51, providing a meaningful target gap that could attract buyers if momentum conditions improve. Targets | Price approaches the analyst target near $116.88 over 12 months as business fundamentals are recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only a 22% upside and the stock sitting below its 200-day moving average, analysts may revise targets downward if earnings growth decelerates. | ||
Willdan scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health assessment, indicating broad-based fundamental strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score remains at 7 or above, reflecting sustained financial discipline and positive operating trends. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical health; it does not prevent forward deterioration if contract revenues slow in the engineering and construction industry. | ||
Price momentum is weak, with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a technical death cross in place, signaling that near-term buyers are cautious and downside risk is elevated. Warnings | Momentum improves over 12 months as price reclaims and sustains above the 200-day moving average, with RSI trending above 50 on a sustained basis. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses frequently resolve without a sustained decline; the shallow -2.2% gap below the 200-day average may reverse quickly on any positive catalyst. | ||
Willdan has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of its most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 68%, suggesting the company is consistently delivering results above Street expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued earnings beats over the next 12 months, with positive quarterly surprise percentages maintaining an average above 20%.
CounterThe high average surprise of 68% may reflect analysts setting conservatively low bars; a reversion to normal expectations could expose underlying earnings pressure.
Analyst consensus implies roughly 22% upside to the current price near $95.51, providing a meaningful target gap that could attract buyers if momentum conditions improve.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price approaches the analyst target near $116.88 over 12 months as business fundamentals are recognized.
CounterWith only a 22% upside and the stock sitting below its 200-day moving average, analysts may revise targets downward if earnings growth decelerates.
Willdan scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health assessment, indicating broad-based fundamental strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score remains at 7 or above, reflecting sustained financial discipline and positive operating trends.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical health; it does not prevent forward deterioration if contract revenues slow in the engineering and construction industry.
Price momentum is weak, with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a technical death cross in place, signaling that near-term buyers are cautious and downside risk is elevated.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Momentum improves over 12 months as price reclaims and sustains above the 200-day moving average, with RSI trending above 50 on a sustained basis.
CounterDeath crosses frequently resolve without a sustained decline; the shallow -2.2% gap below the 200-day average may reverse quickly on any positive catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.6 |
| Op margin | 1.9 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.6 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 45% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 11, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $6,115,879 (0.501% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 1.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.09
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $50
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.93
Upside
+45.5%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 11, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.93 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Insider at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Willdan has beaten analyst earnings estimates in all four of its most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 68%, suggesting the company is consistently delivering results above Street expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Analyst consensus implies roughly 22% upside to the current price near $95.51, providing a meaningful target gap that could attract buyers if momentum conditions improve.
Trip ifAnalyst price target falls below $100, reducing upside to less than 5% from current levels.
- P3Willdan scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health assessment, indicating broad-based fundamental strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency metrics.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any subsequent financial health assessment.
- P4Price momentum is weak, with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a technical death cross in place, signaling that near-term buyers are cautious and downside risk is elevated.
Trip ifStock price drops below $85, more than 11% below the current $95.51, confirming trend deterioration.