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WBWeibo CorporationBuy Wait5.7·$7.61+3.40%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Weibo offers exceptional value with a forward P/E of 5.2x, a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, and a quality score of 7.8, but trades in a confirmed falling-knife downtrend with RSI near oversold at 28 and a 64% margin of safety calculation that requires a reversal of the current negative price trend to realize.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value High Quality CombinationStable
  • Falling Knife Confirmed DowntrendStable
  • Earnings Inconsistency Recent MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Weibo Corporation (WB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information

Wait for pullback to $7.39. At $7.61 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $7.39 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and distribute content in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services. The company... Read more

$7.61+9.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#16 of 36 Internet Content & Information
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield8.28%Payout57.34%sustainable
Entry $7.39(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $7.08Target $8.13(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$9.04+18.8%16 analysts
$8.13our TP
$7.61price
$9.04mean
$7
$11

Wait for pullback to $7.39. At $7.61 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $7.39 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Value play: 66% MoS with quality 7.8. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/11 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 66%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.5%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.1
P/E (Fwd)5.0
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn21.1%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta0.18
Dividend8.28%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV36%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
4.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.5
Bollinger
3.4
Support Resistance
4.4
Gap
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 828.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.09Resistance $7.94

Price Targets

$7
$7
$8
A.Upside+6.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.3%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WB stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $7.39. At $7.61 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $7.39 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Value play: 66% MoS with quality 7.8. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $8.13 (+6.8%), stop $7.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.13 (+9.6% upside). Target $8.13 (+6.8%), stop $7.08 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $7.08.

What are the risks of investing in WB?

Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is WB overvalued or undervalued?

Weibo Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.1 (forward 5.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WB?

16 analysts cover WB with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $9.

What does Weibo Corporation do?Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and...

Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and distribute content in the People's Republic of China. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services. The company offers discovery products to help users discover content on its platform; self-expression products that enable its users to express themselves on its platform; and social products to promote social interaction between users on its platform. It also provides advertising and marketing solutions, such as social display advertisements; and promoted marketing offerings, such as Fans Headline, Weibo Express, and promoted feeds, as well as promoted trends and search products that appear alongside user's trends discovery and search behaviors. In addition, the company offers products, such as trends, search, video/live streaming, and editing tools; content customization, copyright contents pooling, and user interaction development; and search list recommendation, trends list recommendation, and Weibo app opening advertisements. Further, it provides back-end management, traffic support, and product services for better displaying and promotion of its account and content; an open application platform that allows users to log into third-party applications with their Weibo account for sharing third-party content on its platform; and Weibo Wallet, a product that enables platform partners to conduct interest generation activities on Weibo, such as handing out red envelops and coupons. It serves ordinary people, celebrities, opinion leaders, and other public figures or influencers, as well as media outlets, businesses, government agencies, charities, and other organizations. The company was formerly known as T.CN Corporation and changed its name to Weibo Corporation in 2012. The company was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

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