Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.75
VRSK · Why this verdict
Why Verisk Analytics (VRSK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Verisk Analytics is a best-in-class data analytics franchise for U.S. property and casualty insurers, with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, operating margins of 29%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but the stock's near-term appeal is constrained by thin 10% upside to analyst targets, a confirmed downtrend, and heavy customer concentration in a single end market.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Verisk generates operating margins of 29% — best in class among consulting and data analytics peers — supported by a quality score of 8.0, strong return on assets, and gross margins in the top 10% of the universe. Quality breakdown | Operating margins should remain above 27% over the next 12 months, maintaining the premium margin profile that justifies the higher-than-sector valuation multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterThin revenue growth of approximately 4% limits the ability to expand margins further, and the business relies on a single customer segment — U.S. property and casualty insurers representing 70% of revenue — that could face pricing pressure in a soft insurance cycle. | ||
Over 70% of revenue comes from U.S. property and casualty primary insurers, which is flagged as a high-concentration risk; however, this concentration also reflects deep product integration and high switching costs that make relationships durable. Bear case | Revenue from the property and casualty insurance segment should grow at least 3% annually, in line with the broader insurance sector, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the U.S. P&C insurance market enters a hard underwriting cycle that reduces insurer premiums and IT budgets, Verisk has no diversified revenue base to absorb the impact. | ||
Verisk has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 6.2% and consistent beats ranging from 0.96% to 12.92%, demonstrating disciplined financial guidance and reliable execution. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend to at least 6 consecutive quarters, with earnings per share continuing to grow and surprise positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA 6.2% average beat may reflect consistently conservative guidance rather than fundamental outperformance, and any reset of guidance expectations could end the streak without underlying business deterioration. | ||
Despite a recovery setup with improving MACD and RSI at 64, the stock's 200-day moving average is declining at -6.8% over 30 days, and the death cross condition has been flagged — creating a technical headwind that delayed the entry case despite strong fundamentals. Gates warning | The 200-day moving average slope should flatten and turn positive within 6 months, and the stock should hold above $175, roughly 3% below the current $180, confirming the recovery setup is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality and momentum exemption that waived the death cross gate does not eliminate the underlying price trend; if the stock breaks below $168 support, the recovery thesis fails. | ||
Verisk generates operating margins of 29% — best in class among consulting and data analytics peers — supported by a quality score of 8.0, strong return on assets, and gross margins in the top 10% of the universe.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins should remain above 27% over the next 12 months, maintaining the premium margin profile that justifies the higher-than-sector valuation multiple.
CounterThin revenue growth of approximately 4% limits the ability to expand margins further, and the business relies on a single customer segment — U.S. property and casualty insurers representing 70% of revenue — that could face pricing pressure in a soft insurance cycle.
Over 70% of revenue comes from U.S. property and casualty primary insurers, which is flagged as a high-concentration risk; however, this concentration also reflects deep product integration and high switching costs that make relationships durable.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from the property and casualty insurance segment should grow at least 3% annually, in line with the broader insurance sector, over the next 12 months.
CounterIf the U.S. P&C insurance market enters a hard underwriting cycle that reduces insurer premiums and IT budgets, Verisk has no diversified revenue base to absorb the impact.
Verisk has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 6.2% and consistent beats ranging from 0.96% to 12.92%, demonstrating disciplined financial guidance and reliable execution.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to at least 6 consecutive quarters, with earnings per share continuing to grow and surprise positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterA 6.2% average beat may reflect consistently conservative guidance rather than fundamental outperformance, and any reset of guidance expectations could end the streak without underlying business deterioration.
Despite a recovery setup with improving MACD and RSI at 64, the stock's 200-day moving average is declining at -6.8% over 30 days, and the death cross condition has been flagged — creating a technical headwind that delayed the entry case despite strong fundamentals.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope should flatten and turn positive within 6 months, and the stock should hold above $175, roughly 3% below the current $180, confirming the recovery setup is intact.
CounterThe quality and momentum exemption that waived the death cross gate does not eliminate the underlying price trend; if the stock breaks below $168 support, the recovery thesis fails.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,066,154 (0.013% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.7 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 2.5 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.67
- ▸Above max pain $150
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 111.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.44
Upside
+9.9%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.44 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.0, Sentiment at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Growth at 3.2, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Verisk has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 6.2% and consistent beats ranging from 0.96% to 12.92%, demonstrating disciplined financial guidance and reliable execution.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Verisk generates operating margins of 29% — best in class among consulting and data analytics peers — supported by a quality score of 8.0, strong return on assets, and gross margins in the top 10% of the universe.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 25%, more than 4 percentage points below the current 29% level, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Over 70% of revenue comes from U.S. property and casualty primary insurers, which is flagged as a high-concentration risk; however, this concentration also reflects deep product integration and high switching costs that make relationships durable.
Trip ifRevenue growth from the P&C insurance segment declines to below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Despite a recovery setup with improving MACD and RSI at 64, the stock's 200-day moving average is declining at -6.8% over 30 days, and the death cross condition has been flagged — creating a technical headwind that delayed the entry case despite strong fundamentals.
Trip ifStock price falls below $168, more than 7% below the current $180.46, and the 200-day moving average slope remains negative after 90 days.