Value
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.5 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 23.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.65
VRSK · Why this verdict
Why Verisk Analytics (VRSK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Verisk is a high-quality data analytics business with best-in-class 28% margins and positive momentum, but a 22.6x forward P/E, slow growth, 70% insurer customer concentration and only 3.8% upside to the analyst target leave little margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 28% and the business is rated high-quality, with peer-leading margins and a quality score of 7.8/10. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 22% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh margins attract competition and rely on proprietary insurance data that large insurers could try to build in-house. | ||
U.S. property and casualty primary insurers account for 70.0% of the customer base, tying results to one industry's budgets and cycle. Bear case | Customer mix diversifies so insurer concentration does not rise above 70%. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurers rely on shared data standards and switching costs are high, so the concentration has been stable and sticky. | ||
The $203.82 analyst target is only 3.8% above the $196.30 price, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.26 against 15% downside. Analyst target | Analyst targets are raised well above the current price as growth is confirmed. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets for high-quality compounders tend to lag price, so a thin gap may understate upside. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.6x with a PEG of 1.65 while growth scores only 2.5/10, so the valuation depends on growth accelerating. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth improves enough to keep the PEG ratio below 1.65 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterQuality compounders with recurring subscription revenue often hold premium multiples through slow-growth periods. | ||
The price is above its 200-day average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 7.4/10, supporting trend continuation. Momentum breakdown | The momentum score stays above 5.0 as the uptrend continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day average slope is flat, and insiders sold about $2.2M with no buys, which could signal a stalled trend. | ||
Margins are strong at 28% and the business is rated high-quality, with peer-leading margins and a quality score of 7.8/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 22% over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh margins attract competition and rely on proprietary insurance data that large insurers could try to build in-house.
U.S. property and casualty primary insurers account for 70.0% of the customer base, tying results to one industry's budgets and cycle.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Customer mix diversifies so insurer concentration does not rise above 70%.
CounterInsurers rely on shared data standards and switching costs are high, so the concentration has been stable and sticky.
The $203.82 analyst target is only 3.8% above the $196.30 price, with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.26 against 15% downside.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised well above the current price as growth is confirmed.
CounterAnalyst targets for high-quality compounders tend to lag price, so a thin gap may understate upside.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.6x with a PEG of 1.65 while growth scores only 2.5/10, so the valuation depends on growth accelerating.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth improves enough to keep the PEG ratio below 1.65 over 12 months.
CounterQuality compounders with recurring subscription revenue often hold premium multiples through slow-growth periods.
The price is above its 200-day average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 7.4/10, supporting trend continuation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The momentum score stays above 5.0 as the uptrend continues.
CounterThe 200-day average slope is flat, and insiders sold about $2.2M with no buys, which could signal a stalled trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 8.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 1.3 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 2.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,507,084 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $140
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.0% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.8>=7.5+momentum=7.0>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
0.23
Upside
+3.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.8, Momentum at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Insider at 3.6, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 22% from the current 28%.
- P2Insurer Customer Concentration
Trip ifP&C insurer customer share falls below 60% from the current 70.0%.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $230 from the current $203.82.
- P4Full Valuation Slow Growth
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 26x from the current 22.6x without matching earnings growth.
- P5Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.4.