Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.30
VMI · Why this verdict
Why Valmont Industries (VMI) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.4 |
| ROA | 6.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 4.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 50% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.75 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,046,447 (0.082% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.6 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 14.56
- ▸Above max pain $370
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 51.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $568.70 has reached target $571.87. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.77
Upside
-8.6%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.35>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.5; weakest: Insider at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Quality at 6.1; the weakest are Insider at 3.9, Technical at 4.7, and Value at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.