Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.16
- ▸Attractively valued
VLY · Why this verdict
Why Valley National Bancorp (VLY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Valley National Bancorp has delivered four consecutive earnings beats, attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16, and strong revenue growth of 24%, but heavy commercial real estate loan concentration at 58% of the portfolio and a stock trading above its analyst price target limit the near-term risk-reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial real estate loans constitute 58% of the loan portfolio, creating a high-risk concentration that could generate significant credit losses if commercial property values decline or office vacancy rates rise further. Bear case | Commercial real estate loans as a share of total loans falls below 50% within 24 months through diversification or portfolio management. | →Stable |
| CounterValley National has maintained a strong Piotroski score of 7 while carrying this concentration, suggesting it has managed credit quality effectively through the current commercial real estate stress cycle. | ||
Valley National has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with positive surprises ranging from 2% to 9%, reflecting consistent execution against consensus expectations and management guidance discipline. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, maintaining the four-quarter streak. | →Stable |
| CounterBeat margins of 2-9% are modest and may reflect conservative guidance rather than genuine operational outperformance; any credit reserve build in a commercial real estate downturn could easily flip this dynamic. | ||
Revenue growth of 24% year-over-year and strong earnings growth rank Valley National among the faster-growing regional banks in its peer group, with volume accumulation in the stock reflecting institutional recognition of this trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank revenue growth is often rate-sensitive; a rate-cutting cycle could compress net interest margins and quickly reverse the recent growth trajectory. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16 indicate the stock offers meaningful value relative to its growth rate, placing it in attractively valued territory within its regional banking peer set. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 13x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount to peers. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock trades above its analyst consensus price target, meaning even analysts who follow the company closely see no remaining upside at current prices. | ||
Commercial real estate loans constitute 58% of the loan portfolio, creating a high-risk concentration that could generate significant credit losses if commercial property values decline or office vacancy rates rise further.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate loans as a share of total loans falls below 50% within 24 months through diversification or portfolio management.
CounterValley National has maintained a strong Piotroski score of 7 while carrying this concentration, suggesting it has managed credit quality effectively through the current commercial real estate stress cycle.
Valley National has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with positive surprises ranging from 2% to 9%, reflecting consistent execution against consensus expectations and management guidance discipline.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, maintaining the four-quarter streak.
CounterBeat margins of 2-9% are modest and may reflect conservative guidance rather than genuine operational outperformance; any credit reserve build in a commercial real estate downturn could easily flip this dynamic.
Revenue growth of 24% year-over-year and strong earnings growth rank Valley National among the faster-growing regional banks in its peer group, with volume accumulation in the stock reflecting institutional recognition of this trajectory.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterRegional bank revenue growth is often rate-sensitive; a rate-cutting cycle could compress net interest margins and quickly reverse the recent growth trajectory.
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16 indicate the stock offers meaningful value relative to its growth rate, placing it in attractively valued territory within its regional banking peer set.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 13x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount to peers.
CounterThe stock trades above its analyst consensus price target, meaning even analysts who follow the company closely see no remaining upside at current prices.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,598,863 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $11
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 301.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.72
Upside
-7.4%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 7.9, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valley National has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with positive surprises ranging from 2% to 9%, reflecting consistent execution against consensus expectations and management guidance discipline.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consecutive beat streak.
- P2Revenue growth of 24% year-over-year and strong earnings growth rank Valley National among the faster-growing regional banks in its peer group, with volume accumulation in the stock reflecting institutional recognition of this trajectory.
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 10% year-over-year in any of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Commercial real estate loans constitute 58% of the loan portfolio, creating a high-risk concentration that could generate significant credit losses if commercial property values decline or office vacancy rates rise further.
Trip ifNon-performing commercial real estate loans rise above 3% of total loans in any reported quarter, signaling credit quality deterioration.
- P4A forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16 indicate the stock offers meaningful value relative to its growth rate, placing it in attractively valued territory within its regional banking peer set.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 15x, indicating the valuation discount has been fully closed.