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VALNValneva SESell4.7·$5.22+2.65%
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Valneva SE (VALN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.22: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 12.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. It offers IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against... Read more

$5.22+98.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#182 of 258 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-6.26%
Stop $4.89Target $10.37(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 12.5:1
Analyst target$12.20+133.7%4 analysts
$10.37our TP
$5.22price
$12.20mean
$18

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.22: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 12.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 8.5), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.08% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)5.0
Mkt Cap$495M
EV/EBITDA-7.0
Profit Mgn-88.3%
ROE-109.6%
Rev Growth-37.2%
Beta1.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -88.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
7.4
Cash-burning: FCF -20% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Growth Rank
2.3
Value Rank
8.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 12.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.04Resistance $5.93

Price Targets

$5
$10
A.Upside+98.7%
A.R:R12.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 8.5), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.08% of cap)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VALN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.22: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 12.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 46. Prior stop was $4.89. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VALN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.37 (+98.5% upside). Prior stop was $4.89. Stop-loss: $4.89.

What are the risks of investing in VALN?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 8.5), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.08% of cap).

Is VALN overvalued or undervalued?

Valneva SE trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VALN?

12 analysts cover VALN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Valneva SE do?Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prophylactic vaccines for...

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. It offers IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera or heat-labile toxin producing enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and IXCHIQ/ VLA1553, a single-dose, live-attenuated vaccine for the prevention of disease caused by chikungunya virus. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate against Borrelia, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease; S4V2, a tetravalent bioconjugate vaccine candidate against shigellosis, a diarrheal infection caused by Shigella bacteria; VLA1601, a vaccine candidate targeting the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne viral disease; VLA1554, a vaccine candidate targeting human metapneumovirus; VLA84, a vaccine candidate targeting the prevention of primary symptomatic clostridium difficile infection; and VLA2112, a vaccine candidate to treat patients with epstein-barr virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, France, rest of Europe, and internationally. Valneva SE was founded in 1998 and is based in Saint-Herblain, France.

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