USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.70: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
USA Rare Earth is an early-stage company building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain, including the Round Top HREE deposit in Texas, Less Common Metals metal-making operations in the UK, and a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Revenue in... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.70: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About USA Rare Earth, Inc.
About USA Rare Earth, Inc.
USA Rare Earth holds mining rights to Round Top Mountain in Sierra Blanca, Texas — believed to contain one of North America's largest recoverable heavy rare earth element deposits including dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium — plus the Less Common Metals subsidiary in Cheshire, UK, acquired November 18, 2025 for an undisclosed sum. The company recorded a net loss of $298.5 million for FY2025 against an accumulated deficit of $387.4 million, with revenues limited to partial-year metals production at Less Common Metals. Commercial production at Round Top Mountain targets late 2028 under the company's Accelerated Mining Plan, two years ahead of the prior schedule.
USA Rare Earth's business model targets integration across five stages: mining at Round Top Mountain (Texas), rare earth oxide separation at a research and development facility in Wheat Ridge, Colorado, metal and alloy making at Less Common Metals (UK) and a planned 3,750 metric-ton-per-year plant in Lacq, France (announced January 2026), and sintered neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet manufacturing at Stillwater, Oklahoma. Phase 1a of magnet block production at Stillwater was commissioned in Q1 2026, with customer order fulfillment targeted in Q2 2026. The company signed a letter of intent with the U.S. government in January 2026 under which $1.6 billion in direct awards and loans under the CHIPS Act is expected, subject to negotiation of definitive agreements and achievement of specified milestones — the largest proposed government financing for a rare earth company to date.
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China controls approximately 99% of global heavy rare earth processing and approximately 99% of refined gallium supply, positioning USA Rare Earth's Round Top deposit as a potential domestic alternative. Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement 225.7018, effective January 1, 2027, will prohibit the U.S. Department of War from acquiring NdFeB magnets produced in China or other covered countries, compressing the qualification window. The company must complete a definitive feasibility study by early 2027 and achieve commercial production by late 2028 to supply the resulting demand, a timeline that could be adversely affected by permitting delays, capital constraints, or feedstock supply disruptions.
See also: Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
From USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — USA Rare Earth, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS USA Rare Earths Commissions Hydrometallurgical Demonstration Facility In Colorado; Targets Production Of Heavy Rare Eart — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Duke Energy Site Readiness Program Helps Secure USA Rare Earth $1.2B South Carolina Facility; Bringing 490 Jobs To Baile — benzinga Jun 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS USA Rare Earth Enters Agreement With Department Of Commerce To Access Up To $1.6B In Funding Under The CHIPS Program — benzinga Jun 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS USA Rare Earths Selects Cherokee County, South Carolina, For Its New Magnet Manufacturing And Refined Metals Operation — benzinga Jun 2, 2026 positive
- NEWS Needham Initiates Coverage On USA Rare Earth with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $39 — benzinga Jun 1, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOWOn April 20, 2026, directors Mordechai Gutnick and General Paul Kern notified the Board they would not stand for reelection at the June 3, 2026 annual meeting. The Board voted to reduce its size to six directors effective immediately before the annual meeting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOWOn March 9, 2026, Tready Smith resigned from the Board; no disagreement cited. The Board appointed Thomas Caulfield (Executive Chairman of GlobalFoundries) to fill the vacancy, also assigning him to Compensation and Nominating/Governance Committees.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.70: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $20.22. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $34.37 (+58.1% upside). Prior stop was $20.22. Stop-loss: $20.22.
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).
USA Rare Earth, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 690.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover USAR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $40.
What does USA Rare Earth, Inc. do?USA Rare Earth is an early-stage company building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain, including the...
USA Rare Earth is an early-stage company building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain, including the Round Top HREE deposit in Texas, Less Common Metals metal-making operations in the UK, and a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Revenue in 2025 was solely from Less Common Metals for a partial year; the company had a net loss of $298.5M and accumulated deficit of $387.4M as of December 31, 2025.