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USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.40: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

USA Rare Earth is an early-stage company building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain, including the Round Top HREE deposit in Texas, Less Common Metals metal-making operations in the UK, and a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Revenue in... Read more

$21.40+53.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#10 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-1.85%
Stop $20.20Target $32.56(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$37.43+74.9%7 analysts
$32.56our TP
$21.40price
$37.43mean
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.40: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — USA Rare Earth, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-21.4
Mkt Cap$5.4B
EV/EBITDA-51.2
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-44.8%
Rev Growth
Beta2.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV108%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOW
    On April 20, 2026, directors Mordechai Gutnick and General Paul Kern notified the Board they would not stand for reelection at the June 3, 2026 annual meeting. The Board voted to reduce its size to six directors effective immediately before the annual meeting.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    On March 9, 2026, Tready Smith resigned from the Board; no disagreement cited. The Board appointed Thomas Caulfield (Executive Chairman of GlobalFoundries) to fill the vacancy, also assigning him to Compensation and Nominating/Governance Committees.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
4.8
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1371% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.3
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.82Resistance $28.69

Price Targets

$20
$33
A.Upside+52.1%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.40: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $20.20. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.56 (+53.0% upside). Prior stop was $20.20. Stop-loss: $20.20.

What are the risks of investing in USAR?

Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is USAR overvalued or undervalued?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about USAR?

13 analysts cover USAR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $37.

What does USA Rare Earth, Inc. do?USA Rare Earth is an early-stage company building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain, including the...

USA Rare Earth is an early-stage company building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain, including the Round Top HREE deposit in Texas, Less Common Metals metal-making operations in the UK, and a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Revenue in 2025 was solely from Less Common Metals for a partial year; the company had a net loss of $298.5M and accumulated deficit of $387.4M as of December 31, 2025.

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