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USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.92: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality.

USA Rare Earth is building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain with assets including the Round Top HREE deposit in Sierra Blanca, Texas, a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and Less Common Metals (acquired November 2025). 2025 revenues... Read more

$24.92+24.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 21 Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Stop $23.23Target $31.07(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$35.71+43.3%7 analysts
$31.07our TP
$24.92price
$35.71mean
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.92: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: neo magnets
Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-16.4
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA-96.2
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-107.2%
Rev Growth
Beta1.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV113%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommodityneo magnets
    10-K Item 1A: 'our revenue is, and will for the foreseeable future be, derived from the production and sale of neo magnets'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 1.01HIGH
    USAR entered into Agreement and Plan of Merger with SVRE Holdings Ltd./Serra Verde Rare Earths Ltd. for SVRE to merge as an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of USAR. Expected to close Q3 2026 subject to regulatory approvals.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-23Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Mordechai Gutnick and General Paul Kern will not stand for reelection at June 3, 2026 annual meeting. Board size reduced to 6 directors. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Director Tready Smith resigned; Thomas Caulfield (Executive Chairman of GlobalFoundries) appointed as replacement director. Board remains at 8 directors. No disagreement cited for resignation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -2872% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.3
52w Position
1.4
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.5>=5.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.07Resistance $25.95

Price Targets

$23
$31
A.Upside+24.7%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-13 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.92: Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.23. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.07 (+24.4% upside). Prior stop was $23.23. Stop-loss: $23.23.

What are the risks of investing in USAR?

Concentration risk — Commodity: neo magnets; Quality below floor (1.8 < 4.0).

Is USAR overvalued or undervalued?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about USAR?

11 analysts cover USAR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $36.

What does USA Rare Earth, Inc. do?USA Rare Earth is building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain with assets including the Round Top HREE...

USA Rare Earth is building an integrated rare earth mine-to-magnet value chain with assets including the Round Top HREE deposit in Sierra Blanca, Texas, a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and Less Common Metals (acquired November 2025). 2025 revenues derived solely from Less Common Metals; net loss $298.5M with accumulated deficit of $387.4M.

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