Value
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 14.5x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
UMH · Why this verdict
Why UMH Properties (UMH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
UMH Properties offers strong growth scoring and analyst consensus upside of 29%, with an exceptional free cash flow conversion of 269% of net income that is characteristic of well-run residential REITs, but negative price momentum and consecutive earnings misses in 2 of the last 4 quarters introduce near-term headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
UMH converts 269% of net income to free cash flow — well above the 100% threshold that signals strong cash generation — reflecting a manufactured housing REIT structure where depreciation and other non-cash charges boost reported cash flows well above accounting earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow remains at least 150% of net income for the next 4 reported periods, sustaining the cash quality advantage | →Stable |
| CounterHigh FCF-to-net-income ratios in REITs can reflect non-cash depreciation on depreciating assets; the quality score of 5.7 out of 10 suggests the accounting advantage does not fully translate to business quality | ||
UMH's growth score of 7.2 out of 10 with earnings growth at the top end of the scoring range reflects the expanding demand for manufactured housing as an affordable residential alternative, and the April 2026 quarter produced a 275% positive earnings surprise. Components | Revenue grows by at least 5% year-over-year and earnings growth score stays above 7.0 for the next 12 months | →Stable |
| CounterThe April 2026 surprise of 275% comes off an extremely low base, and 2 of the last 4 quarters were misses, suggesting the earnings trajectory is lumpy rather than smoothly improving | ||
The momentum score of 3.9 fails the minimum threshold of 4.5, and while the stock is technically above its 200-day moving average, the MA slope is flat, indicating the stock has been range-bound without meaningful directional follow-through. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score rises above 4.5 within 6 months as price action strengthens and the flat MA slope turns positive | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical scores for support and resistance are strong at 7.0 out of 10, and Bollinger Band positioning at 7.1 suggests the stock is near the middle of its band range with room to move higher | ||
Analysts see 29% upside to the price target of $16.90 from the current $15.04, and with an asymmetry ratio of 2.48 (upside 12.4% vs downside 4.1%), the risk-reward profile comfortably clears the 1.5 minimum threshold for a favorable setup. Targets | Price reaches $16.90 or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the REIT discount to analyst value narrows | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage on UMH is described as light, dampening the signal strength of the targets, and a negative news modifier has shifted the assessment downward from the base case | ||
UMH converts 269% of net income to free cash flow — well above the 100% threshold that signals strong cash generation — reflecting a manufactured housing REIT structure where depreciation and other non-cash charges boost reported cash flows well above accounting earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow remains at least 150% of net income for the next 4 reported periods, sustaining the cash quality advantage
CounterHigh FCF-to-net-income ratios in REITs can reflect non-cash depreciation on depreciating assets; the quality score of 5.7 out of 10 suggests the accounting advantage does not fully translate to business quality
UMH's growth score of 7.2 out of 10 with earnings growth at the top end of the scoring range reflects the expanding demand for manufactured housing as an affordable residential alternative, and the April 2026 quarter produced a 275% positive earnings surprise.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Revenue grows by at least 5% year-over-year and earnings growth score stays above 7.0 for the next 12 months
CounterThe April 2026 surprise of 275% comes off an extremely low base, and 2 of the last 4 quarters were misses, suggesting the earnings trajectory is lumpy rather than smoothly improving
The momentum score of 3.9 fails the minimum threshold of 4.5, and while the stock is technically above its 200-day moving average, the MA slope is flat, indicating the stock has been range-bound without meaningful directional follow-through.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score rises above 4.5 within 6 months as price action strengthens and the flat MA slope turns positive
CounterTechnical scores for support and resistance are strong at 7.0 out of 10, and Bollinger Band positioning at 7.1 suggests the stock is near the middle of its band range with room to move higher
Analysts see 29% upside to the price target of $16.90 from the current $15.04, and with an asymmetry ratio of 2.48 (upside 12.4% vs downside 4.1%), the risk-reward profile comfortably clears the 1.5 minimum threshold for a favorable setup.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price reaches $16.90 or higher within 12 months as momentum recovers and the REIT discount to analyst value narrows
CounterAnalyst coverage on UMH is described as light, dampening the signal strength of the targets, and a negative news modifier has shifted the assessment downward from the base case
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.9 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 5.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 269% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $16,477 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.3 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| put call | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 5.9 |
- ▸High IV: 87%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 587.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.26
Upside
+11.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.2; weakest: Peer rank at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.2, Sentiment at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.8, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1UMH converts 269% of net income to free cash flow — well above the 100% threshold that signals strong cash generation — reflecting a manufactured housing REIT structure where depreciation and other non-cash charges boost reported cash flows well above accounting earnings.
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income for more than 2 consecutive quarters
- P2UMH's growth score of 7.2 out of 10 with earnings growth at the top end of the scoring range reflects the expanding demand for manufactured housing as an affordable residential alternative, and the April 2026 quarter produced a 275% positive earnings surprise.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters
- P3The momentum score of 3.9 fails the minimum threshold of 4.5, and while the stock is technically above its 200-day moving average, the MA slope is flat, indicating the stock has been range-bound without meaningful directional follow-through.
Trip ifPrice drops below $14.42 stop-loss level, more than 4% below the current $15.04
- P4Analysts see 29% upside to the price target of $16.90 from the current $15.04, and with an asymmetry ratio of 2.48 (upside 12.4% vs downside 4.1%), the risk-reward profile comfortably clears the 1.5 minimum threshold for a favorable setup.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $15, reducing upside to less than 0% from current price