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UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.Hold6.2·$33.31-0.42%
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United Community Banks, Inc. (UCB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk.

United Community Banks is a South Carolina-based bank holding company with $28.0 billion in consolidated total assets at December 31, 2025, serving retail and commercial customers across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Alabama. It earns interest... Read more

$33.31+2.4% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#51 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 2.96%)Payout36.26%sustainable
Stop $31.83Target $34.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$38.17+14.6%6 analysts
$34.11our TP
$33.31price
$38.17mean
$40

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About United Community Banks, Inc.

About United Community Banks, Inc.

United Community Banks held $28.0 billion in consolidated total assets at December 31, 2025, with $19.4 billion in loans—69% of total assets—across commercial, residential mortgage, SBA/USDA, and equipment finance portfolios. Headquartered in Greenville, South Carolina, the company operates United Community Bank as its primary subsidiary, chartered under South Carolina law and examined by the SCBFI, FDIC, Federal Reserve, and CFPB, serving markets in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Alabama. On May 1, 2025, United Community Banks completed the acquisition of ANB, adding $301 million in loans and $374 million in deposits in the Fort Lauderdale, Florida market.

Deposits are the primary funding source, generated mainly from local markets across the six-state footprint. The most significant loan categories are owner-occupied commercial real estate, commercial income-producing property, commercial and industrial equipment, and consumer residential loans. The retail mortgage division (UCMS), approved as a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac seller/servicer, originated $1.02 billion in residential mortgage loans during 2025, selling approximately 65% into the secondary market without recourse. Fee income comes from private banking, wealth management, trust, and insurance services offered through United Community Private Wealth, which maintains an LPL Financial affiliation for non-deposit investment and insurance products. During 2025, United Community Banks redeemed all shares of Series I preferred stock (carrying value $88.3 million) and two series of senior debentures totaling $135 million. During 2024, the Bank changed its primary federal regulator from the FDIC to the Federal Reserve.

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UCB explicitly acknowledges its regional concentration: the 10-K notes the company serves customers primarily across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Alabama, and that conditions in those markets may differ from—and could be worse than—the U.S. economy as a whole. Unlike banks with a broader national deposit and lending footprint, UCB operates without the geographic diversification of large national competitors, exposing performance to southeastern real estate cycles, hurricane risk, and regional employment trends. The SCBFI's prior approval is required for acquisitions of South Carolina state-chartered banks or bank holding companies, adding a state-regulatory gate to in-market consolidation that out-of-footprint competitors do not face.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From United Community Banks, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202635d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.5%
ROE9.5%
Rev Growth14.4%
Beta0.84
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$35+5.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Jefferson L. Harralson agreed to resign effective December 31, 2026 under a formal transition agreement dated April 28, 2026. No successor named. Harralson to receive salary, benefits, and 2026 incentive bonus through the Employment Termination Date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 35d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $31.83Resistance $34.81

Price Targets

$32
$34
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.3% upside)
! M&A event: 'definitive agreement' detected
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (35d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UCB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $33.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Target $34.11 (+2.4%), stop $31.83 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UCB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.11 (+2.4% upside). Target $34.11 (+2.4%), stop $31.83 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $31.83.

What are the risks of investing in UCB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-9.8% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.2).

Is UCB overvalued or undervalued?

United Community Banks, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UCB?

11 analysts cover UCB with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $38.

What does United Community Banks, Inc. do?United Community Banks is a South Carolina-based bank holding company with $28.0 billion in consolidated total assets...

United Community Banks is a South Carolina-based bank holding company with $28.0 billion in consolidated total assets at December 31, 2025, serving retail and commercial customers across Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Alabama. It earns interest income on $19.4 billion in loans spanning commercial real estate, residential mortgage, SBA/USDA, and equipment finance, supplemented by wealth management and mortgage banking fees.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · PNFP (Pinnacle Financial Partners, In) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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