Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.90
- ▸Attractively valued
UBS · Why this verdict
Why UBS Group AG Registered (UBS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
UBS Group offers attractive valuation at 12x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.90 and rising on-balance volume above its 200-day moving average, but having already exceeded its analyst price target by 15.5%, the stock offers no near-term asymmetric entry point.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
UBS trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.90 and 18% operating margins, making it one of the more attractively priced large diversified banks relative to expected earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings grow to justify the current valuation at a forward multiple that remains below 15x over the next 12 months as net interest income and wealth management fees expand. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target of $49.05 is already 1% below the current price of $49.55, meaning the consensus view already captures the valuation argument and sees no additional upside at this price level. | ||
UBS trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 out of 10, reflecting sustained institutional buying pressure that has carried the stock to within 1% of its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 12 months as the post-Credit Suisse integration delivers synergies. | →Stable |
| CounterAt the 52-week high end with negative upside to the analyst target, the stock is technically extended and vulnerable to profit-taking if any macro or integration news disappoints. | ||
UBS earns a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and delivers 18% net margins, indicating solid financial health and profitability that ranks competitively within the diversified banking sector. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next four quarters as the Credit Suisse integration delivers cost savings that flow through to net income. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity of 3.4% is low for a financial institution of this size, suggesting that despite high margins, the bank has not yet translated the Credit Suisse acquisition into meaningful equity value creation. | ||
The stock trades 1% above the analyst consensus resistance target of $49.05, producing a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.26 that makes the current price an unattractive entry for new positions. Targets | Analyst consensus target rises above $54 following stronger-than-expected wealth management inflows in the next earnings report, restoring at least 9% upside from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average earnings surprise of 13.8% over the last four quarters suggests management has a consistent track record of beating estimates, which could catalyze upward target revisions sooner than the market currently anticipates. | ||
UBS trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.90 and 18% operating margins, making it one of the more attractively priced large diversified banks relative to expected earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings grow to justify the current valuation at a forward multiple that remains below 15x over the next 12 months as net interest income and wealth management fees expand.
CounterThe analyst target of $49.05 is already 1% below the current price of $49.55, meaning the consensus view already captures the valuation argument and sees no additional upside at this price level.
UBS trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 out of 10, reflecting sustained institutional buying pressure that has carried the stock to within 1% of its 52-week high.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume continues rising over the next 12 months as the post-Credit Suisse integration delivers synergies.
CounterAt the 52-week high end with negative upside to the analyst target, the stock is technically extended and vulnerable to profit-taking if any macro or integration news disappoints.
UBS earns a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and delivers 18% net margins, indicating solid financial health and profitability that ranks competitively within the diversified banking sector.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next four quarters as the Credit Suisse integration delivers cost savings that flow through to net income.
CounterReturn on equity of 3.4% is low for a financial institution of this size, suggesting that despite high margins, the bank has not yet translated the Credit Suisse acquisition into meaningful equity value creation.
The stock trades 1% above the analyst consensus resistance target of $49.05, producing a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.26 that makes the current price an unattractive entry for new positions.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus target rises above $54 following stronger-than-expected wealth management inflows in the next earnings report, restoring at least 9% upside from current levels.
CounterThe average earnings surprise of 13.8% over the last four quarters suggests management has a consistent track record of beating estimates, which could catalyze upward target revisions sooner than the market currently anticipates.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.9 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 5.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 7.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $28
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 223.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $50.30 has reached target $50.22. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.59
Upside
-12.2%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.4, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1UBS trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0x with a PEG ratio of 0.90 and 18% operating margins, making it one of the more attractively priced large diversified banks relative to expected earnings growth.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 18x as earnings are revised downward by more than 10% from current consensus expectations.
- P2UBS trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and a momentum score of 6.2 out of 10, reflecting sustained institutional buying pressure that has carried the stock to within 1% of its 52-week high.
Trip ifPrice falls below $47.69, the current stop-loss level, indicating the uptrend has broken down and the 200-day moving average is no longer providing support.
- P3UBS earns a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and delivers 18% net margins, indicating solid financial health and profitability that ranks competitively within the diversified banking sector.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 in any single reporting period, signaling a deterioration across at least 4 of the 9 financial health criteria.
- P4The stock trades 1% above the analyst consensus resistance target of $49.05, producing a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.26 that makes the current price an unattractive entry for new positions.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $45, more than 9% below the current price of $49.55, indicating that the consensus now expects a meaningful price decline.