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T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $102.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.

T. Rowe Price Group is a global active investment manager with $1,775.6 billion in AUM as of December 31, 2025, offering equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives strategies through U.S. mutual funds, ETFs, collective investment trusts, and separately managed accounts.... Read more

$102.30-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#71 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $98.21Target $100.97(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$93.83-8.3%12 analysts
$100.97our TP
$102.30price
$93.83mean
$73

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $102.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 85. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)10.5
Mkt Cap$21.9B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn28.5%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth6.0%
Beta1.52
Dividend5.18%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV37%normal
Max Pain$60-41.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOW
    T. Rowe Price and Oak Hill Advisors (OHA) entered updated evergreen operating arrangement. Amended employment agreement with Glenn R. August (OHA CEO and Company Board member): annual base salary $350,000, eligible for annual bonus and equity incentives. Routine retention/compensation arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.4
52w Position
8.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
4.0
GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
85 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $87.59Resistance $103.03

Price Targets

$98
$101
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TROW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $102.30 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 85. Prior stop was $98.21. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the TROW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $100.97 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $98.21. Stop-loss: $98.21.

What are the risks of investing in TROW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is TROW overvalued or undervalued?

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 10.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TROW?

19 analysts cover TROW with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $94.

What does T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. do?T. Rowe Price Group is a global active investment manager with $1,775.6 billion in AUM as of December 31, 2025,...

T. Rowe Price Group is a global active investment manager with $1,775.6 billion in AUM as of December 31, 2025, offering equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives strategies through U.S. mutual funds, ETFs, collective investment trusts, and separately managed accounts. Revenue is primarily investment advisory fees calculated as a percentage of AUM, serving individuals, advisors, institutions, and retirement plan sponsors.

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