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T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $101.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: sponsored U.S. mutual funds (55.0%).

T. Rowe Price Group is a global active asset manager with $1,775.6 billion AUM across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives, serving individuals and institutions in 60 countries through mutual funds, collective trusts, SMAs, ETFs, and private funds. Investment... Read more

$101.85+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#40 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.63%
IncomeYield5.11%(5y avg 4.11%)Payout54.83%sustainable
Stop $96.88Target $104.78(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $101.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: sponsored U.S. mutual funds (55.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: sponsored U.S. mutual funds (55.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$21.8B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE18.7%
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta1.53
Dividend5.11%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV38%normal
Max Pain$80-21.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductsponsored U.S. mutual funds55%
    10-K Item 1: 'Nearly 55% of our investment advisory fees are earned from our sponsored U.S. mutual funds'
  • MEDIUMProducttarget date retirement products32%
    10-K Item 1: 'The assets under management in our target date retirement products totaled $561.4 billion at December 31, 2025, or 31.6% of our managed assets at December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOW
    Amended and restated employment agreement with Glenn R. August, CEO of Oak Hill Advisors (OHA), approved April 21, 2026 as part of updated OHA evergreen operating arrangement. Routine compensatory arrangement update; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
3.8
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.65Resistance $106.92

Price Targets

$97
$105
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TROW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $101.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Product: sponsored U.S. mutual funds (55.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $96.88. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TROW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $104.78 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $96.88. Stop-loss: $96.88.

What are the risks of investing in TROW?

Concentration risk — Product: sponsored U.S. mutual funds (55.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Weak growth.

Is TROW overvalued or undervalued?

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TROW?

19 analysts cover TROW with a consensus score of 2.5/5.

What does T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. do?T. Rowe Price Group is a global active asset manager with $1,775.6 billion AUM across equity, fixed income,...

T. Rowe Price Group is a global active asset manager with $1,775.6 billion AUM across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives, serving individuals and institutions in 60 countries through mutual funds, collective trusts, SMAs, ETFs, and private funds. Investment advisory fees are calculated as a percentage of AUM; nearly 55% are earned from sponsored US mutual funds. Target date retirement products represented 31.6% of managed assets as of December 31, 2025.

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