Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 5.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.41
TRMK · Why this verdict
Why Trustmark (TRMK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Trustmark Corporation has delivered three earnings beats in the last four quarters with strong momentum indicators including a golden cross and rising volume accumulation, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with negative asymmetry, limiting near-term upside relative to downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Supervisory oversight by both FRBA and MDBCF represents a dual regulatory burden that is explicitly cited as a concentration risk, which could constrain Trustmark's flexibility to pursue acquisitions, capital returns, or new business lines. Bear case | No new formal regulatory actions are announced and the bank maintains its current capital ratios above 10% tier-1 over the next 12 months, suggesting the dual oversight is routine rather than restrictive. | →Stable |
| CounterDual regulatory supervision is common among community banks and does not inherently indicate elevated enforcement risk; the market may be over-pricing this concentration concern. | ||
Trustmark has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.35%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next four quarters with average surprise staying above 4%, sustaining the recent track record of execution. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks face persistent net interest margin compression from rate normalization; the beat streak could reverse quickly if deposit costs rise faster than loan repricing allows. | ||
A golden cross pattern with RSI at 55 and rising on-balance volume confirms that institutional buying pressure has been building, placing Trustmark in a technical breakout setup supported by volume accumulation above all major moving averages. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 9 months, with on-balance volume continuing its upward trend. | →Stable |
| CounterAt only 2.5% below its 52-week high and already past the analyst price target, the breakout may be exhausted, making further gains dependent on a re-rating that is not currently supported by analyst consensus. | ||
With the stock trading above the analyst consensus price target — reflected in a negative upside of -8.6% — the current price embeds expectations that exceed what professional analysts currently believe the business is worth. Warnings | Analyst price targets rise at least 10% above the current price of $45.17 within 12 months, providing renewed fundamental support for the current valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price action in strong momentum stocks; institutional accumulation reflected in rising on-balance volume may indicate the market is ahead of published analyst models. | ||
Supervisory oversight by both FRBA and MDBCF represents a dual regulatory burden that is explicitly cited as a concentration risk, which could constrain Trustmark's flexibility to pursue acquisitions, capital returns, or new business lines.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No new formal regulatory actions are announced and the bank maintains its current capital ratios above 10% tier-1 over the next 12 months, suggesting the dual oversight is routine rather than restrictive.
CounterDual regulatory supervision is common among community banks and does not inherently indicate elevated enforcement risk; the market may be over-pricing this concentration concern.
Trustmark has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.35%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains above 75% over the next four quarters with average surprise staying above 4%, sustaining the recent track record of execution.
CounterRegional banks face persistent net interest margin compression from rate normalization; the beat streak could reverse quickly if deposit costs rise faster than loan repricing allows.
A golden cross pattern with RSI at 55 and rising on-balance volume confirms that institutional buying pressure has been building, placing Trustmark in a technical breakout setup supported by volume accumulation above all major moving averages.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 of the next 9 months, with on-balance volume continuing its upward trend.
CounterAt only 2.5% below its 52-week high and already past the analyst price target, the breakout may be exhausted, making further gains dependent on a re-rating that is not currently supported by analyst consensus.
With the stock trading above the analyst consensus price target — reflected in a negative upside of -8.6% — the current price embeds expectations that exceed what professional analysts currently believe the business is worth.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise at least 10% above the current price of $45.17 within 12 months, providing renewed fundamental support for the current valuation.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price action in strong momentum stocks; institutional accumulation reflected in rising on-balance volume may indicate the market is ahead of published analyst models.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 2.2 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 1.4 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 217.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.45
Upside
-10.8%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.45 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.8, Momentum at 6.5, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 3.8, Technical at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Trustmark has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average positive surprise of 5.35%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations in a challenging regional banking environment.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the recent beat streak and signaling deteriorating earnings execution.
- P2A golden cross pattern with RSI at 55 and rising on-balance volume confirms that institutional buying pressure has been building, placing Trustmark in a technical breakout setup supported by volume accumulation above all major moving averages.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and stays below it for more than 30 consecutive days, breaking the breakout setup.
- P3Supervisory oversight by both FRBA and MDBCF represents a dual regulatory burden that is explicitly cited as a concentration risk, which could constrain Trustmark's flexibility to pursue acquisitions, capital returns, or new business lines.
Trip ifThe share price drops below $38, more than 15% below the current $45.17, following a formal regulatory enforcement action against the bank.
- P4With the stock trading above the analyst consensus price target — reflected in a negative upside of -8.6% — the current price embeds expectations that exceed what professional analysts currently believe the business is worth.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $40.00, signaling that professional models are marking down intrinsic value rather than catching up to the current price.