Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.29
TRI · Why this verdict
Why Thomson Reuters (TRI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Thomson Reuters has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with strong operating margins of 20% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, while analysts see 33% upside to approximately $107. The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and a -11.3%/30-day slope — creating a wide valuation opportunity that is counterbalanced by serious near-term technical risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Thomson Reuters beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.4%, maintaining a consistent pattern of narrow but reliable outperformance, supported by operating margins of 20% that rank best in class among specialty business services peers. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprises averaging above 1%. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average earnings surprise of only 2.4% with a narrow range from 0.75% to 4.55% suggests estimates are well-calibrated and the beat streak reflects marginal outperformance rather than a durable guidance conservatism pattern. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a 200-day moving average declining at -11.3% over 30 days, a death cross on the chart, and falling on-balance volume, indicating that sellers are in control of price action at every time frame currently visible in the data. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope flattens to less than -5% per 30 days within 6 months as price stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterStocks with strong fundamental earnings records frequently experience extended technical downtrends without fundamental deterioration; the -11.3% moving average slope may reflect macro sector rotation out of information services rather than company-specific weakness. | ||
Analyst consensus sees 33% upside from $80.47 to approximately $107, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a competitive moat score of 7.0, suggesting the market is discounting a high-quality, consistent business more than the fundamentals warrant. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $95, more than 18% above the current $80.47, within 12 months as the downtrend reverses. | →Stable |
| CounterA 33% gap between price and analyst target in a downtrending stock often indicates that analysts have not yet revised their models to reflect new information; the risk-reward is only favorable if the technical breakdown does not signal a fundamental deterioration not yet visible in earnings. | ||
A dividend coverage ratio of 326% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate that Thomson Reuters can sustain its dividend comfortably from earnings and free cash flow, reducing capital return risk even as the stock price declines. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend is maintained or increased, and free cash flow coverage of the dividend remains above 150% over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterInformation services companies with high dividend coverage ratios can see those ratios compress quickly if AI-driven disruption accelerates and forces significant reinvestment in product transformation to remain competitive. | ||
Thomson Reuters beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.4%, maintaining a consistent pattern of narrow but reliable outperformance, supported by operating margins of 20% that rank best in class among specialty business services peers.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprises averaging above 1%.
CounterAn average earnings surprise of only 2.4% with a narrow range from 0.75% to 4.55% suggests estimates are well-calibrated and the beat streak reflects marginal outperformance rather than a durable guidance conservatism pattern.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a 200-day moving average declining at -11.3% over 30 days, a death cross on the chart, and falling on-balance volume, indicating that sellers are in control of price action at every time frame currently visible in the data.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope flattens to less than -5% per 30 days within 6 months as price stabilizes.
CounterStocks with strong fundamental earnings records frequently experience extended technical downtrends without fundamental deterioration; the -11.3% moving average slope may reflect macro sector rotation out of information services rather than company-specific weakness.
Analyst consensus sees 33% upside from $80.47 to approximately $107, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a competitive moat score of 7.0, suggesting the market is discounting a high-quality, consistent business more than the fundamentals warrant.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $95, more than 18% above the current $80.47, within 12 months as the downtrend reverses.
CounterA 33% gap between price and analyst target in a downtrending stock often indicates that analysts have not yet revised their models to reflect new information; the risk-reward is only favorable if the technical breakdown does not signal a fundamental deterioration not yet visible in earnings.
A dividend coverage ratio of 326% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate that Thomson Reuters can sustain its dividend comfortably from earnings and free cash flow, reducing capital return risk even as the stock price declines.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend is maintained or increased, and free cash flow coverage of the dividend remains above 150% over the next 4 quarters.
CounterInformation services companies with high dividend coverage ratios can see those ratios compress quickly if AI-driven disruption accelerates and forces significant reinvestment in product transformation to remain competitive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 20%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 2.7 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 324.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
4.14
Upside
+30.9%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.14 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Quality at 6.5, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.5, and Technical at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Thomson Reuters beat earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 2.4%, maintaining a consistent pattern of narrow but reliable outperformance, supported by operating margins of 20% that rank best in class among specialty business services peers.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the historically consistent beat pattern has broken down.
- P2The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with a 200-day moving average declining at -11.3% over 30 days, a death cross on the chart, and falling on-balance volume, indicating that sellers are in control of price action at every time frame currently visible in the data.
Trip if200-day moving average slope declines beyond -15% per 30 days, indicating acceleration of the downtrend rather than stabilization.
- P3Analyst consensus sees 33% upside from $80.47 to approximately $107, backed by a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 and a competitive moat score of 7.0, suggesting the market is discounting a high-quality, consistent business more than the fundamentals warrant.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price targets are revised below $90, more than 16% below current targets, indicating fundamental concerns are now driving model changes.
- P4A dividend coverage ratio of 326% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicate that Thomson Reuters can sustain its dividend comfortably from earnings and free cash flow, reducing capital return risk even as the stock price declines.
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 15% below the current level, indicating free cash flow has deteriorated enough to force a capital allocation change.