Should you buy Tootsie Roll Industries (TR)?
Updated
Tootsie Roll Industries is a low-volatility consumer defensive confectioner with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and a strong technical setup at Bollinger Band support, but has a history of earnings misses and its most recent available quarterly data dates to 2014-2015, raising questions about the currency of the earnings track record used in analysis.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Volume is accumulating with rising on-balance volume despite the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, and the support and resistance technical score of 8.1 suggests the stock is near a historically meaningful support level that could provide a buying opportunity. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 9 months as volume accumulation translates into price recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterBelow-200-MA setups with rising on-balance volume can be momentum divergences that resolve lower rather than higher, particularly in low-growth consumer defensive stocks with no catalyst visible on the horizon. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and strong Bollinger Band support score of 6.7 indicate that Tootsie Roll's financial fundamentals are sound across multiple dimensions and the stock is technically near a support zone that has historically attracted buyers. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above through the next annual reporting cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer defensive confectioners with no recognized competitive moat can see Piotroski scores deteriorate if input cost inflation — cocoa, sugar, packaging — compresses margins faster than pricing can recover. | ||
The two most recent earnings misses and an average negative surprise of -1.4% across the available track record indicate that analyst consensus tends to overshoot Tootsie Roll's actual delivery, creating a pattern of modest but persistent disappointments. Earnings | Earnings surprises return to positive territory in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters as estimates are reset more conservatively. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings data in the analysis dates to 2014-2015, making it unclear whether the current miss pattern reflects recent business conditions or simply stale historical data; more recent reporting periods could show different results. | ||
Volume is accumulating with rising on-balance volume despite the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, and the support and resistance technical score of 8.1 suggests the stock is near a historically meaningful support level that could provide a buying opportunity.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average within 9 months as volume accumulation translates into price recovery.
CounterBelow-200-MA setups with rising on-balance volume can be momentum divergences that resolve lower rather than higher, particularly in low-growth consumer defensive stocks with no catalyst visible on the horizon.
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and strong Bollinger Band support score of 6.7 indicate that Tootsie Roll's financial fundamentals are sound across multiple dimensions and the stock is technically near a support zone that has historically attracted buyers.
→Stable- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above through the next annual reporting cycle.
CounterConsumer defensive confectioners with no recognized competitive moat can see Piotroski scores deteriorate if input cost inflation — cocoa, sugar, packaging — compresses margins faster than pricing can recover.
The two most recent earnings misses and an average negative surprise of -1.4% across the available track record indicate that analyst consensus tends to overshoot Tootsie Roll's actual delivery, creating a pattern of modest but persistent disappointments.
→Stable- Expectation
- Earnings surprises return to positive territory in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters as estimates are reset more conservatively.
CounterThe earnings data in the analysis dates to 2014-2015, making it unclear whether the current miss pattern reflects recent business conditions or simply stale historical data; more recent reporting periods could show different results.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
Revenue and earnings growth are modest — in the low single digits — while the stock has no analyst coverage beyond a neutral rating, meaning Tootsie Roll is valued purely on its intrinsic earnings power without a catalyst for multiple expansion.
→Stable- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 3% year over year within 12 months, supporting modest upside to the $41.14 resistance target.
CounterA confectioner with no meaningful growth, no moat, and stale analyst coverage may trade at a permanently compressed multiple; the 8.7% upside to resistance is achievable but may take longer than 12 months without a catalyst.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and strong Bollinger Band support score of 6.7 indicate that Tootsie Roll's financial fundamentals are sound across multiple dimensions and the stock is technically near a support zone that has historically attracted buyers.
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 in the next annual reporting cycle, signaling material financial health deterioration.
- P2The two most recent earnings misses and an average negative surprise of -1.4% across the available track record indicate that analyst consensus tends to overshoot Tootsie Roll's actual delivery, creating a pattern of modest but persistent disappointments.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, indicating estimate misses are deepening.
- P3Volume is accumulating with rising on-balance volume despite the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, and the support and resistance technical score of 8.1 suggests the stock is near a historically meaningful support level that could provide a buying opportunity.
Trip ifPrice falls below $35.84 stop-loss, more than 5% below the current $37.86, and on-balance volume turns negative.
- P4Revenue and earnings growth are modest — in the low single digits — while the stock has no analyst coverage beyond a neutral rating, meaning Tootsie Roll is valued purely on its intrinsic earnings power without a catalyst for multiple expansion.
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below 0% for 3 consecutive quarters, indicating the business is contracting rather than stagnating.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (TR) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with high conviction, score 4.3/10 at $38.30. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 0.00 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $38.30, with structural invalidation at $36.18. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 0.31 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bear side: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.3/10.
SELL output reflects multiple gate failures; recovery requires a confluence of those gates re-clearing, not a single dimension move.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates TR — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
- ▸Consecutive earnings misses (2)
- ▸Weak overall score: 4.3/10