Should you buy Tutor Perini (TPC)?
Updated
Tutor Perini has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and trades at a PEG of 0.04 with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.7x, while analysts see 48% upside to approximately $96. However, 75% revenue concentration in government customers creates binary risk around contract awards and funding continuity, and a single quarter miss of -41% shows earnings volatility can be severe.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Approximately 75% of Tutor Perini's revenues come from government customers, meaning the business is highly dependent on public infrastructure spending budgets, appropriations continuity, and contract awards that can be delayed, cancelled, or reduced without notice. Bear case | Government-sourced revenue share declines toward 65% within 12 months as private sector projects expand, reducing single-source dependence. | →Stable |
| CounterGovernment contract concentration provides revenue predictability and access to large-scale infrastructure projects; the ongoing U.S. infrastructure investment cycle may actually increase the value of this government-facing positioning. | ||
A PEG ratio of 0.04 and analyst price targets implying 48% upside suggest Tutor Perini may be significantly mispriced relative to its earnings growth, with the market discounting the government revenue concentration risk more than analysts believe is warranted. Valuation breakdown | Price rises above $90, more than 17% above the current $76.55, within 12 months as contract backlog converts to revenue. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely low PEG ratios in construction companies often reflect lumpy, project-based revenues where forward earnings estimates can be highly inaccurate; the -41% miss in Q4 2025 illustrates how quickly estimates can prove wrong. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 852% of net income is exceptionally high, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a pattern typical in construction companies where project cash is received before profit is recognized. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income over the next 2 annual cycles. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high cash conversion multiples in construction can reflect changes in advance billings and working capital timing that reverse in subsequent periods; treating this as a durable quality metric overstates its reliability. | ||
Approximately 75% of Tutor Perini's revenues come from government customers, meaning the business is highly dependent on public infrastructure spending budgets, appropriations continuity, and contract awards that can be delayed, cancelled, or reduced without notice.
→Stable- Expectation
- Government-sourced revenue share declines toward 65% within 12 months as private sector projects expand, reducing single-source dependence.
CounterGovernment contract concentration provides revenue predictability and access to large-scale infrastructure projects; the ongoing U.S. infrastructure investment cycle may actually increase the value of this government-facing positioning.
A PEG ratio of 0.04 and analyst price targets implying 48% upside suggest Tutor Perini may be significantly mispriced relative to its earnings growth, with the market discounting the government revenue concentration risk more than analysts believe is warranted.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price rises above $90, more than 17% above the current $76.55, within 12 months as contract backlog converts to revenue.
CounterExtremely low PEG ratios in construction companies often reflect lumpy, project-based revenues where forward earnings estimates can be highly inaccurate; the -41% miss in Q4 2025 illustrates how quickly estimates can prove wrong.
Free cash flow conversion of 852% of net income is exceptionally high, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a pattern typical in construction companies where project cash is received before profit is recognized.
→Stable- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income over the next 2 annual cycles.
CounterExtremely high cash conversion multiples in construction can reflect changes in advance billings and working capital timing that reverse in subsequent periods; treating this as a durable quality metric overstates its reliability.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
Despite beating in three of the last four quarters overall, the single miss was -41.3%, highlighting that project-based earnings in construction are inherently lumpy and individual quarter results can deviate dramatically from estimates.
→Stable- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains above -15% in each of the next 4 quarters, indicating better earnings visibility as project mix normalizes.
CounterA 3-for-4 beat streak including a major beat of 28.6% in Q3 2025 shows that strong quarters can significantly offset weak ones; the net-positive average beat of 1.9% may reflect an acceptable level of volatility for this sector.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Approximately 75% of Tutor Perini's revenues come from government customers, meaning the business is highly dependent on public infrastructure spending budgets, appropriations continuity, and contract awards that can be delayed, cancelled, or reduced without notice.
Trip ifGovernment customer revenues fall below 60% of total revenues due to contract cancellations or funding reductions, or a major contract is terminated representing more than 10% of annual revenues.
- P2A PEG ratio of 0.04 and analyst price targets implying 48% upside suggest Tutor Perini may be significantly mispriced relative to its earnings growth, with the market discounting the government revenue concentration risk more than analysts believe is warranted.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price targets decline below $75, below the current price of $76.55, signaling broad-based downward revision.
- P3Free cash flow conversion of 852% of net income is exceptionally high, indicating that cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings — a pattern typical in construction companies where project cash is received before profit is recognized.
Trip ifFree cash flow drops below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Despite beating in three of the last four quarters overall, the single miss was -41.3%, highlighting that project-based earnings in construction are inherently lumpy and individual quarter results can deviate dramatically from estimates.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -30% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating persistent project execution problems.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.1/10 at $83.84. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 0.96 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk at 1.0 vs threshold 1.5. SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5.
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (3/4). On the bear side: Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%). Active engine warnings: V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $83.84, with structural invalidation at $78.26. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 2.06 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates TPC — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Bear case
- ▸Concentration risk — Customer: government customers (75.0%)