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Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.63; Below-average business quality.

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and sells durable insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Mobi) with Control-IQ+ AID technology and related supplies to nearly 500,000 people with insulin-dependent diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring cartridge/infusion set... Read more

$19.26+45.9% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#36 of 40 Medical Devices
Stop $17.89Target $28.07(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$31.19+61.9%21 analysts
$28.07our TP
$19.26price
$31.19mean
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.63; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: insulin pumps
Concentration risk — Supplier: Dexcom
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-670.4
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA-23.1
Profit Mgn-20.2%
ROE-97.9%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C6.63bearish
IV116%elevated
Max Pain$10-48.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductinsulin pumps
    10-K Item 1A: 'We generate nearly all of our sales from the sale of our insulin pumps and the related insulin cartridges and infusion sets'
  • HIGHSupplierDexcom
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales of any of our current or future insulin pump products with CGM integration are subject to the continuation of our applicable agreements with Dexcom, Abbott, or other third parties'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Volatile — 6.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.6
Debt Equity
2.1
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
4.2
Days To Cover
5.3
News Risk
5.5
High short interest justified: 19%Elevated put/call: 6.63High IV: 116%Above max pain $10Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.9
Growth Rank
1.8
Value Rank
8.5

Unprofitable operations — net margin -20.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
1.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
6.8
Current Ratio
8.6
Cash-burning: FCF -4% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.59Resistance $21.96

Price Targets

$18
$28
A.Upside+45.7%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -9.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.05% of cap)
! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNDM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.26: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 3.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.63; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $17.89. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNDM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.07 (+45.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.89. Stop-loss: $17.89.

What are the risks of investing in TNDM?

Concentration risk — Product: insulin pumps; Concentration risk — Supplier: Dexcom; Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is TNDM overvalued or undervalued?

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -670.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TNDM?

29 analysts cover TNDM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. do?Tandem Diabetes Care designs and sells durable insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Mobi) with Control-IQ+ AID technology and...

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and sells durable insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Mobi) with Control-IQ+ AID technology and related supplies to nearly 500,000 people with insulin-dependent diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring cartridge/infusion set purchases; the company is transitioning to a pharmacy channel reimbursement model.

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