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Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S.

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring single-use supplies (cartridges, infusion sets) through US/Canada... Read more

$12.94+117.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#20 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-2.31%
Stop $11.92Target $27.90(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 7.8:1
Analyst target$31.00+139.6%21 analysts
$27.90our TP
$12.94price
$31.00mean
$55

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.6Qual3.1Grw7.0Mom3.1Sent7.9Ins5.0Peer3.3Tech6.6Risk2.75.4OVERALL

Recent Developments — Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors
Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S
Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)358.9
Mkt Cap$879M
EV/EBITDA-24.1
Profit Mgn-9.2%
ROE-65.7%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.64
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertwo independent distributors
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, two independent distributors each accounted for more than 10% of our worldwide sales.'
  • HIGHSupplierUnomedical A/S
    10-K Item 1: 'we purchase all of our currently marketed infusion sets from a third-party supplier, Unomedical A/S, a subsidiary of the ConvaTec Group.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Volatile — 11.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
1.6
Days To Cover
4.3
Beta
4.5
News Risk
6.0
High short interest justified: 19%Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.0
Current Ratio
9.4
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moat

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Vol Acceleration
2.6
Rsi
3.0
Volume
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weaknessVolume surge (2.4x avg) on selloff

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.8
Value Rank
8.5
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 7.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
20 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.26Resistance $21.86

Price Targets

$12
$28
A.Upside+115.6%
A.R:R7.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNDM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $27.90 (+115.6%), stop $11.92 (−8.6%), A.R:R 7.8:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNDM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.90 (+117.6% upside). Target $27.90 (+115.6%), stop $11.92 (−8.6%), A.R:R 7.8:1. Stop-loss: $11.92.

What are the risks of investing in TNDM?

Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S; Market cap $0.88B below $1B minimum.

Is TNDM overvalued or undervalued?

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 358.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TNDM?

29 analysts cover TNDM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. do?Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly...

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring single-use supplies (cartridges, infusion sets) through US/Canada distributors, with international markets transitioning to direct sales. Two US distributors each exceeded 10% of worldwide sales in 2025.

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