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TNDMTandem Diabetes Care, Inc.Sell5.3·$16.63+0.18%
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Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality.

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring single-use supplies (cartridges, infusion sets) through US/Canada... Read more

$16.63+58.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#23 of 40 Medical Devices
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.78%
Stop $15.47Target $26.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$29.20+75.6%20 analysts
$26.28our TP
$16.63price
$29.20mean
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.

About Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.

Tandem Diabetes Care commercializes two insulin pump platforms — the t:slim X2 and Tandem Mobi — both featuring Control-IQ+ automated insulin delivery technology cleared by the FDA in March 2025 for type 2 patients aged 18 and older, building on its type 1 clearance for patients aged 2 and older. The company assembles pumps at its San Diego, California facility and serves nearly 500,000 people in more than 25 countries. Mobi with Android control launched in December 2025, extending the platform further.

Revenue comes from durable pump sales and recurring single-use supplies — insulin cartridges and infusion sets replaced every three to seven days. In the U.S. and Canada, distribution runs through independent distributors for order fulfillment while Tandem's own sales, clinical, and customer support teams manage the patient relationship. The company is transitioning toward a pharmacy benefit reimbursement model as an alternative to the traditional durable medical equipment channel, which could reduce upfront pump payments while increasing recurring supply revenue per customer. Unomedical A/S, a ConvaTec subsidiary, manufactures all commercially marketed infusion sets as a sole-source supplier. Two independent distributors each represented more than 10% of worldwide 2025 sales. Competitors include Insulet, Medtronic, Beta Bionics, mylife, and Sequel.

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The FDA's December 2025 finalization of competitive bidding for insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitors under CMS — alongside a proposed shift to monthly rental reimbursement — introduces structural pricing pressure to Tandem's U.S. durable medical equipment channel. The company's ACE pump and iAGC classification under FDA Class II special controls provides a streamlined regulatory path but requires ongoing satisfaction of those controls, or products revert to the full PMA process. Tandem also depends on CGM integrations with Dexcom and Abbott, which can be terminated on relatively short notice; in May 2026, the company terminated Chief Commercial Officer Mark Novara without cause, leaving the commercial leadership role vacant.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Devices

From Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors
Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)282.6
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA-30.1
Profit Mgn-9.2%
ROE-65.7%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta1.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV93%elevated
Max Pain$26+56.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertwo independent distributors
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, two independent distributors each accounted for more than 10% of our worldwide sales.'
  • HIGHSupplierUnomedical A/S
    10-K Item 1: 'we purchase all of our currently marketed infusion sets from a third-party supplier, Unomedical A/S, a subsidiary of the ConvaTec Group.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Volatile — 8.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Short Interest
1.2
Put Call
3.3
Beta
4.8
Days To Cover
6.8
Max Pain Risk
7.0
High short interest justified: 23%High IV: 93%Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -9.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
5.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
7.0
Current Ratio
9.4
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.8
Value Rank
8.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
5.2
Macd
6.2
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.83Resistance $20.62

Price Targets

$15
$26
A.Upside+58.0%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TNDM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.63: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $15.47. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TNDM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.28 (+58.0% upside). Prior stop was $15.47. Stop-loss: $15.47.

What are the risks of investing in TNDM?

Concentration risk — Customer: two independent distributors; Concentration risk — Supplier: Unomedical A/S; Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0).

Is TNDM overvalued or undervalued?

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 282.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TNDM?

29 analysts cover TNDM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. do?Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly...

Tandem Diabetes Care designs and commercializes insulin pumps (t:slim X2, Tandem Mobi with Control-IQ+) serving nearly 500,000 people with diabetes in 25+ countries. Revenue comes from pump sales and recurring single-use supplies (cartridges, infusion sets) through US/Canada distributors, with international markets transitioning to direct sales. Two US distributors each exceeded 10% of worldwide sales in 2025.

Related stocks: GMED (Globus Medical, Inc.) · PODD (Insulet Corporation) · IRTC (iRhythm Holdings, Inc.) · MASI (Masimo Corporation) · LIVN (LivaNova PLC)
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