Should you buy Tompkins Financial (TMP)?
Updated
Tompkins Financial trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x with a PEG of 0.34 and 38% net margins, backed by a golden cross breakout and strong peer-relative value rankings, but negative asymmetry of -1.85 with the price above the analyst target makes this a hold rather than a new buy.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x and a PEG of 0.34, Tompkins Financial is priced well below its earnings growth rate, placing it in the top tier of the peer value ranking with scores of 8.9 and 8.9 on value and quality relative to peers respectively. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 13x within 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers with similar quality profiles. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with low growth profiles often trade at persistent PEG discounts due to limited scale, geographic concentration, and sensitivity to interest rate movements that are not captured in simple multiple comparisons. | ||
Net margins of 38% — the highest in the data — and operating margins at the maximum score of 10.0 reflect a well-run regional bank with strong interest income efficiency, supported by positive return on equity and a quality rank score of 8.9 relative to peers. Quality breakdown | Net margin remains above 30% and return on equity stays above 8% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment, and a rate cut cycle could compress net interest margins materially from the current 38% level without any operational failure. | ||
A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 61, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically sound breakout supported by institutional accumulation, with the MACD in bullish territory. Momentum breakdown | Stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months and on-balance volume continues rising. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is only 2.6% from its 52-week high and approaching the analyst price target, which historically leads to distribution as momentum participants exit into strength. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x and a PEG of 0.34, Tompkins Financial is priced well below its earnings growth rate, placing it in the top tier of the peer value ranking with scores of 8.9 and 8.9 on value and quality relative to peers respectively.
→Stable- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 13x within 12 months as the market recognizes the valuation discount to peers with similar quality profiles.
CounterRegional banks with low growth profiles often trade at persistent PEG discounts due to limited scale, geographic concentration, and sensitivity to interest rate movements that are not captured in simple multiple comparisons.
Net margins of 38% — the highest in the data — and operating margins at the maximum score of 10.0 reflect a well-run regional bank with strong interest income efficiency, supported by positive return on equity and a quality rank score of 8.9 relative to peers.
→Stable- Expectation
- Net margin remains above 30% and return on equity stays above 8% over the next 12 months.
CounterBank margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment, and a rate cut cycle could compress net interest margins materially from the current 38% level without any operational failure.
A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 61, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically sound breakout supported by institutional accumulation, with the MACD in bullish territory.
→Stable- Expectation
- Stock remains above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months and on-balance volume continues rising.
CounterThe stock is only 2.6% from its 52-week high and approaching the analyst price target, which historically leads to distribution as momentum participants exit into strength.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
With the stock at $90.58 and the resistance target at $91.16, there is effectively no upside remaining to the near-term price objective, and asymmetry of -1.85 means the setup is unfavorable for new entry regardless of the quality and value metrics.
→Stable- Expectation
- Analyst price target rises above $100 within 12 months, restoring more than 10% upside from current levels and re-establishing positive asymmetry.
CounterThree of the last four quarters beat earnings estimates, and continued delivery could prompt analysts to raise their targets, organically restoring the asymmetry without a price correction.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1At a forward price-to-earnings of 11.1x and a PEG of 0.34, Tompkins Financial is priced well below its earnings growth rate, placing it in the top tier of the peer value ranking with scores of 8.9 and 8.9 on value and quality relative to peers respectively.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 9x, declining more than 18% from the current 11.1x, confirming the valuation discount is deepening rather than closing.
- P2Net margins of 38% — the highest in the data — and operating margins at the maximum score of 10.0 reflect a well-run regional bank with strong interest income efficiency, supported by positive return on equity and a quality rank score of 8.9 relative to peers.
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25%, declining more than 13 percentage points from the current 38%, signaling meaningful margin compression.
- P3A golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages, RSI at 61, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically sound breakout supported by institutional accumulation, with the MACD in bullish territory.
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and the golden cross reverses, signaling that the breakout has failed.
- P4With the stock at $90.58 and the resistance target at $91.16, there is effectively no upside remaining to the near-term price objective, and asymmetry of -1.85 means the setup is unfavorable for new entry regardless of the quality and value metrics.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $80, more than 11% below the current price of $90.58, confirming that downside risk has emerged.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) is HOLD_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 6.4/10 at $93.11. None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) cleared their gates — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals rather than directional conviction.
HOLD flips toward BUY_WAIT if reward-to-risk (NEGATIVE) clears AND a co-confirming gate triggers. HOLD flips toward SELL if any of the currently-passing gates drop below threshold OR three or more dimensions fall below 4 simultaneously.
The engine is not issuing fresh-money entry targets at the current verdict. The technical entry zone is around — with a technical stop near $88.47 for existing positions. Asymmetric R:R is -0.13, below the threshold (≥2.0) at which the engine would actively flag fresh capital. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (3/4); Attractive valuation; Margin of safety: 47%. On the bear side: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Active engine warnings: V8: Target reached (-18.9% upside), V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates TMP — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- ▸Attractive valuation
- ▸Margin of safety: 47%
Bear case
- ▸Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
- ▸Near 52-week high (0.6% away)