Value
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.62
TMO · Why this verdict
Why Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Thermo Fisher Scientific delivers a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with 15% net margins and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, but a confirmed death cross with falling on-balance volume and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.70 create a cautious near-term technical backdrop.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Thermo Fisher has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.4% — consistently outperforming on what are already well-calibrated estimates — while maintaining net margins of 15% and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters and net margin remains above 13% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average beat of only 3.4% indicates the company is delivering in-line rather than materially ahead of expectations, providing little room for earnings upside as a re-rating catalyst. | ||
A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average flat but volume distribution showing falling on-balance volume signals that sellers are more active than buyers, and the momentum gate has failed at 4.3 against a threshold of 4.5 — keeping new entry blocked on technical grounds. Momentum breakdown | The death cross resolves into a golden cross and on-balance volume turns persistently upward within 6 months, removing the technical block. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving with a score of 10 out of 10 on the MACD component, and RSI at 59 is in healthy territory — suggesting the death cross may be near resolution rather than the beginning of a sustained downtrend. | ||
Analyst consensus implies 13.8% upside to a target of $539.27 from $473.72, and the asymmetry ratio of 1.69 barely clears the minimum bar of 1.5, suggesting there is a moderate but positive expected return relative to the downside risk of 6.7%. Targets | Price rises above $510 within 12 months, closing more than 55% of the gap toward the analyst target of $539.27. | →Stable |
| CounterAt a forward price-to-earnings of 17.4x with PEG of 1.56, the stock is not cheap, and the asymmetry barely clearing the bar means a small downside revision to the analyst target would eliminate the positive case. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.70 indicates that options traders are positioning for more downside than upside, and with the stock below the 200-day moving average, the options market is hedging a continued technical weakness scenario. Key risks | Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 within 12 months as the technical picture improves and bearish hedging demand normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 1.70 is elevated but not extreme, and combined with low overall implied volatility the options market may simply be reflecting routine institutional hedging rather than directional bearishness. | ||
Thermo Fisher has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.4% — consistently outperforming on what are already well-calibrated estimates — while maintaining net margins of 15% and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters and net margin remains above 13% over the next 12 months.
CounterAn average beat of only 3.4% indicates the company is delivering in-line rather than materially ahead of expectations, providing little room for earnings upside as a re-rating catalyst.
A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average flat but volume distribution showing falling on-balance volume signals that sellers are more active than buyers, and the momentum gate has failed at 4.3 against a threshold of 4.5 — keeping new entry blocked on technical grounds.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The death cross resolves into a golden cross and on-balance volume turns persistently upward within 6 months, removing the technical block.
CounterMACD is improving with a score of 10 out of 10 on the MACD component, and RSI at 59 is in healthy territory — suggesting the death cross may be near resolution rather than the beginning of a sustained downtrend.
Analyst consensus implies 13.8% upside to a target of $539.27 from $473.72, and the asymmetry ratio of 1.69 barely clears the minimum bar of 1.5, suggesting there is a moderate but positive expected return relative to the downside risk of 6.7%.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price rises above $510 within 12 months, closing more than 55% of the gap toward the analyst target of $539.27.
CounterAt a forward price-to-earnings of 17.4x with PEG of 1.56, the stock is not cheap, and the asymmetry barely clearing the bar means a small downside revision to the analyst target would eliminate the positive case.
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.70 indicates that options traders are positioning for more downside than upside, and with the stock below the 200-day moving average, the options market is hedging a continued technical weakness scenario.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 within 12 months as the technical picture improves and bearish hedging demand normalizes.
CounterA put/call ratio of 1.70 is elevated but not extreme, and combined with low overall implied volatility the options market may simply be reflecting routine institutional hedging rather than directional bearishness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 7.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.3 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 10.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $185,064 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.7 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 5.8 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 38.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.69
Upside
+6.6%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.69 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.7, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.69 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Thermo Fisher has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.4% — consistently outperforming on what are already well-calibrated estimates — while maintaining net margins of 15% and a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the perfect 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2A confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average flat but volume distribution showing falling on-balance volume signals that sellers are more active than buyers, and the momentum gate has failed at 4.3 against a threshold of 4.5 — keeping new entry blocked on technical grounds.
Trip ifOn-balance volume falls for more than 60 consecutive days and price drops below $440, more than 7% below the current $473.72, confirming the death cross has led to sustained downside.
- P3Analyst consensus implies 13.8% upside to a target of $539.27 from $473.72, and the asymmetry ratio of 1.69 barely clears the minimum bar of 1.5, suggesting there is a moderate but positive expected return relative to the downside risk of 6.7%.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $450, more than 5% below the current price of $473.72, removing the positive asymmetry case.
- P4An elevated put/call ratio of 1.70 indicates that options traders are positioning for more downside than upside, and with the stock below the 200-day moving average, the options market is hedging a continued technical weakness scenario.
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.5, exceeding the current elevated level of 1.70 by more than 47%, signaling meaningfully increased bearish positioning.