Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.90
TKR · Why this verdict
Why Timken Company (The) (TKR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Timken Company has delivered a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak with average surprise of 7.65%, a golden cross breakout with RSI at 70, and a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, but with the stock trading 14.6% above the analyst target and asymmetry firmly negative, new entry here carries poor risk-reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Timken has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.65%, and earnings estimates are trending upward, signaling that the analyst community is consistently underestimating the company's operational execution. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters and analyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year rise by at least 5% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates trending up after a strong run often brings the stock to a valuation that already reflects the improved outlook, leaving less room for additional multiple expansion. | ||
A golden cross formation, stock price above all major moving averages, RSI at 70, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically strong breakout with broad market participation and momentum continuation into new highs. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average and the golden cross pattern persists for at least 6 of the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at exactly 70 is at the overbought threshold and the stock is already near its 52-week high, meaning additional momentum buying may be limited and a reversion to mean is more likely. | ||
A Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — reflects a company with strong and improving profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, providing a durable foundation for continued earnings delivery. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains at 8 or 9 out of 9 for at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly assessments. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect Piotroski score indicates peak financial health, which historically means subsequent scores are more likely to decline slightly than improve further. | ||
The current price of $139.12 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $140.06, and with asymmetry at -1.0 and implied upside at -14.6%, there is no price cushion for entering a new position at current levels despite the strong fundamental and technical backdrop. Warnings | Analyst price target rises above $155, more than 11% above the current price of $139.12, restoring positive asymmetry and creating a fresh entry opportunity. | →Stable |
| CounterA positive news modifier boosting the signal to a strong buy wait suggests that near-term catalysts from recent news flow may warrant waiting for an entry rather than avoiding entirely. | ||
Timken has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.65%, and earnings estimates are trending upward, signaling that the analyst community is consistently underestimating the company's operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 5 consecutive quarters and analyst earnings estimates for the next fiscal year rise by at least 5% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings estimates trending up after a strong run often brings the stock to a valuation that already reflects the improved outlook, leaving less room for additional multiple expansion.
A golden cross formation, stock price above all major moving averages, RSI at 70, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically strong breakout with broad market participation and momentum continuation into new highs.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average and the golden cross pattern persists for at least 6 of the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at exactly 70 is at the overbought threshold and the stock is already near its 52-week high, meaning additional momentum buying may be limited and a reversion to mean is more likely.
A Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — reflects a company with strong and improving profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, providing a durable foundation for continued earnings delivery.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains at 8 or 9 out of 9 for at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly assessments.
CounterA perfect Piotroski score indicates peak financial health, which historically means subsequent scores are more likely to decline slightly than improve further.
The current price of $139.12 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $140.06, and with asymmetry at -1.0 and implied upside at -14.6%, there is no price cushion for entering a new position at current levels despite the strong fundamental and technical backdrop.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price target rises above $155, more than 11% above the current price of $139.12, restoring positive asymmetry and creating a fresh entry opportunity.
CounterA positive news modifier boosting the signal to a strong buy wait suggests that near-term catalysts from recent news flow may warrant waiting for an entry rather than avoiding entirely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.2 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
| erm sentiment | 6.4 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $8,296,144 (0.087% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.1 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $125
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 104.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.23
Upside
-15.8%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 6.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.23 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Timken has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 7.65%, and earnings estimates are trending upward, signaling that the analyst community is consistently underestimating the company's operational execution.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2A golden cross formation, stock price above all major moving averages, RSI at 70, and rising on-balance volume confirm a technically strong breakout with broad market participation and momentum continuation into new highs.
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average and the golden cross reverses to a death cross, signaling the breakout has failed.
- P3A Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9 — the maximum possible — reflects a company with strong and improving profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, providing a durable foundation for continued earnings delivery.
Trip ifPiotroski financial strength score falls below 7 out of 9, more than 2 points below the current maximum of 9.
- P4The current price of $139.12 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $140.06, and with asymmetry at -1.0 and implied upside at -14.6%, there is no price cushion for entering a new position at current levels despite the strong fundamental and technical backdrop.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $125, more than 10% below the current price of $139.12, confirming meaningful downgrade risk.