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TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.41 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential first mortgage loans (69.1%).

TFS Financial Corporation's principal subsidiary, Third Federal Savings & Loan of Cleveland, originates and services residential mortgage loans from its Ohio and Florida branch network. As of September 30, 2025, first mortgage residential loans were 69.1% of the $15.7B loan... Read more

$15.41-0.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#140 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield7.33%(5y avg 8.01%)Payout342.42%at-risk
Stop $14.65Target $15.28(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1
Analyst target$15.50+0.6%2 analysts
$15.28our TP
$15.41price
$15.50mean
$15
$16

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.41 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential first mortgage loans (69.1%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val2.8Qual4.8Grw5.0Mom6.7Sent5.0Ins5.0Peer2.8Tech3.9Risk4.74.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — TFS Financial Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential first mortgage loans (69.1%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.7
P/E (Fwd)41.6
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn27.8%
ROE4.9%
Rev Growth9.8%
Beta0.73
Dividend7.33%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.30bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$3-83.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioresidential first mortgage loans69%
    10-K Item 1: 'fixed-rate and adjustable-rate, first mortgage residential loans totaled $10.84 billion, or 69.1% of our loan portfolio'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Meredith Weil to retire January 2027. James LaRocca (ex-CFO, Westfield Bank) announced as successor; joining June 29, 2026 and expected to succeed as CFO upon Weil's retirement. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
1.4
Pe
2.7
Forward Pe
2.7
Peg Ratio
3.8
Forward P/E: 41.6xPEG: 2.91Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.1
Quality Rank
2.0
Growth Rank
4.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.59Resistance $15.59

Price Targets

$15
$15
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.41 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential first mortgage loans (69.1%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.65. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.28 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $14.65. Stop-loss: $14.65.

What are the risks of investing in TFSL?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: residential first mortgage loans (69.1%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.2% away).

Is TFSL overvalued or undervalued?

TFS Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 46.7 (forward 41.6). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TFSL?

7 analysts cover TFSL with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $16.

What does TFS Financial Corporation do?TFS Financial Corporation's principal subsidiary, Third Federal Savings & Loan of Cleveland, originates and services...

TFS Financial Corporation's principal subsidiary, Third Federal Savings & Loan of Cleveland, originates and services residential mortgage loans from its Ohio and Florida branch network. As of September 30, 2025, first mortgage residential loans were 69.1% of the $15.7B loan portfolio; deposits are concentrated in Ohio ($7.58B) and Florida ($2.92B).

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