TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TFSL stock price target?

Entry $13.40, take-profit $14.88 (+11.0% upside). Target $14.88 (-0.9%), stop $12.84 (−16.9%), A.R:R -2.7:1.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

TFS Financial (Third Federal Savings) is a federally chartered savings bank focused almost exclusively on residential mortgage lending, operating primarily in Ohio and Florida with 8.9B in total assets. Revenue from mortgage origination, servicing (~$2.13B serviced), and home... Read more

$15.01+11.0% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#140 of 142 Banks - Regional

Entry $13.40(200-day MA)Stop $12.84Target $14.88(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1Setup A.R:R 2.6:1

Analyst target$14.50-3.4%2 analysts

$14.88our TP

$15.01price

$14.50mean

$14

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: residential mortgage loans; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $15.01 has reached target $14.88. No upside to wait for. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: residential mortgage loans

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Near 52-week high (2.7% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.0

P/E (Fwd)41.5

Mkt Cap$4.1B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn27.7%

ROE4.8%

Rev Growth11.0%

Beta0.70

Dividend7.67%

Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish

IV51%elevated

Max Pain$3-83.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductresidential mortgage loans
10-K Item 1A: 'Our principal lending activity consists of originating, and essentially all of our loan portfolio consists of, residential mortgage loans'
MEDIUMGeographicOhio and Florida primary markets
10-K Item 1A: 'Our performance is significantly impacted by the general economic conditions in our primary markets in Ohio and Florida'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
Meredith Weil (CFO and Board member) to retire effective January 2027. James LaRocca to join June 29, 2026 as VP/Finance and Accounting Officer and is anticipated to succeed as CFO upon Weil retirement. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value2.615%0.39

Quality5.115%0.76

Growth4.715%0.70

Momentum5.710%0.57

Sentiment4.810%0.48

Insider Activity4.110%0.41

Peer Rank3.010%0.30

Technical Setup4.55%0.23

Risk Profile5.25%0.26

Catalyst6.05%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)4.41

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

1.6

2.7

Forward Pe

2.7

Peg Ratio

3.2

Forward P/E: 41.5xPEG: 3.79Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

0.1

Quality Rank

2.1

Growth Rank

4.9

GatesA.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

55 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.00Resistance $15.18

Price Targets

$13

$15

A.Upside-0.9%

A.R:R-2.7:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.9% upside)

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TFSL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.01, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: residential mortgage loans; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $15.01 has reached target $14.88. No upside to wait for. Target $14.88 (-0.9%), stop $12.84 (−16.9%), A.R:R -2.7:1. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.88 (+11.0% upside). Target $14.88 (-0.9%), stop $12.84 (−16.9%), A.R:R -2.7:1. Stop-loss: $12.84.

What are the risks of investing in TFSL?

Concentration risk — Product: residential mortgage loans; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

Is TFSL overvalued or undervalued?

TFS Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 46.0 (forward 41.5). TrendMatrix value score: 2.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TFSL?

7 analysts cover TFSL with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $15.

What does TFS Financial Corporation do?TFS Financial (Third Federal Savings) is a federally chartered savings bank focused almost exclusively on residential...