Skip to main content

Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.22: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.93; Below-average business quality.

Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services in the United States. It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit; and loan products, such as commercial... Read more

$67.22+1.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#137 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $62.46Target $68.22(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$68.80+2.4%5 analysts
$68.22our TP
$67.22price
$68.80mean
$65
$72

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.22: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.93; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-10.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)56.2
P/E (Fwd)24.7
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.2%
ROE3.4%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.43
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.93bearish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$30-55.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Volatility
1.9
Short Interest
2.2
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Implied Vol
3.9
Beta
5.3
High short interest: 16%Elevated put/call: 3.93Above max pain $30

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
2.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Roe
1.1
Net Margin
3.6
Moat
5.0
Operating Margin
5.6
Piotroski F
8.9
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $58.66Resistance $69.61

Price Targets

$62
$68
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TFIN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.22: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.93; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $62.46. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TFIN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.22 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $62.46. Stop-loss: $62.46.

What are the risks of investing in TFIN?

Target reached (-10.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is TFIN overvalued or undervalued?

Triumph Financial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 56.2 (forward 24.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TFIN?

10 analysts cover TFIN with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $69.

What does Triumph Financial, Inc. do?Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services...

Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services in the United States. It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit; and loan products, such as commercial real estate, commercial construction, land, and land development, residential real estate, agriculture, and consumer loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans, equipment loans, asset-based loans, business loans for working capital and operational purposes, and liquid credit loans. The company also provides electronic banking services, debit cards, insurance brokerage services, mortgage warehouse facilities, and transportation factoring services; payment, audit, and other banking services for the over the road trucking industry; and LoadPay product, a digital bank account developed for Carriers, as well as provides service and performance scoring and benchmarking to the over-the-road trucking industry. The company was formerly known as Triumph Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to Triumph Financial, Inc. in December 2022. Triumph Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · FFBC (First Financial Bancorp.) · AUB (Atlantic Union Bankshares Corpo) · PNFP (Pinnacle Financial Partners, In)