Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
TEN · Why this verdict
Why Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tsakos Energy Navigation earns a composite score of 7.3 out of 10, has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times, and generates strong margins of 25% — but forward earnings are projected to decline 52% from the current trailing level as the tanker cycle peaks, and the put-to-call ratio of 27.4 is extremely elevated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tsakos Energy Navigation has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, including individual beats of 35%, 59%, 19%, and 11% — and the forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.08 offers one of the lowest valuations relative to earnings growth in the energy shipping peer group. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward price-to-earnings stays below 20 times. | →Stable |
| CounterThe tanker shipping cycle is flagged as approaching a peak with forward earnings projected to decline 52% — making the current beat streak and low forward multiple reflections of cyclical highs that may not persist. | ||
Forward earnings are projected to decline approximately 52% from trailing levels, producing a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times versus a trailing price-to-earnings of 6 times — an extreme divergence between current earnings power and projected future earnings that signals the market expects a significant tanker rate correction. Bear case | Forward earnings decline is less severe than projected, with forward price-to-earnings staying below 20 times on stable or rising tanker day-rates. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping cycles are notoriously difficult to forecast; analyst models frequently overestimate tanker rate declines because global trade disruptions, canal availability, and fleet growth constraints can extend tanker up-cycles beyond projected peak. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 27.4 — extremely elevated compared to any typical stock — indicating that options market participants are positioned approximately 27 times more heavily for downside than upside, reflecting strong institutional conviction that the stock will decline from current levels. Key risks | The put-to-call ratio falls below 5.0, more than 22 points below the current 27.4, as the tanker cycle outlook becomes more balanced. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity small-cap shipping stocks can reflect hedging by existing shareholders rather than directional bets; low absolute options volume can make the ratio misleading as a directional signal. | ||
Tsakos earns 25% net margins, holds a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, and has grown revenue 28% year-over-year — providing a buffer of balance sheet strength and profitability that supports the company through a potential tanker rate softening cycle. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 6 or above through the next two years of the cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterA leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 adds financial fragility at the exact moment when earnings are projected to decline 52%; if tanker rates fall faster than projected, margin compression and rising debt service burden can intersect negatively. | ||
Tsakos Energy Navigation has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, including individual beats of 35%, 59%, 19%, and 11% — and the forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.08 offers one of the lowest valuations relative to earnings growth in the energy shipping peer group.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward price-to-earnings stays below 20 times.
CounterThe tanker shipping cycle is flagged as approaching a peak with forward earnings projected to decline 52% — making the current beat streak and low forward multiple reflections of cyclical highs that may not persist.
Forward earnings are projected to decline approximately 52% from trailing levels, producing a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times versus a trailing price-to-earnings of 6 times — an extreme divergence between current earnings power and projected future earnings that signals the market expects a significant tanker rate correction.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings decline is less severe than projected, with forward price-to-earnings staying below 20 times on stable or rising tanker day-rates.
CounterShipping cycles are notoriously difficult to forecast; analyst models frequently overestimate tanker rate declines because global trade disruptions, canal availability, and fleet growth constraints can extend tanker up-cycles beyond projected peak.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 27.4 — extremely elevated compared to any typical stock — indicating that options market participants are positioned approximately 27 times more heavily for downside than upside, reflecting strong institutional conviction that the stock will decline from current levels.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 5.0, more than 22 points below the current 27.4, as the tanker cycle outlook becomes more balanced.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity small-cap shipping stocks can reflect hedging by existing shareholders rather than directional bets; low absolute options volume can make the ratio misleading as a directional signal.
Tsakos earns 25% net margins, holds a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, and has grown revenue 28% year-over-year — providing a buffer of balance sheet strength and profitability that supports the company through a potential tanker rate softening cycle.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 6 or above through the next two years of the cycle.
CounterA leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 adds financial fragility at the exact moment when earnings are projected to decline 52%; if tanker rates fall faster than projected, margin compression and rising debt service burden can intersect negatively.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $998,341 (0.081% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.3 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 60%
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 486.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.01
Upside
-0.1%
Downside
8.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.8; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 9.1, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Sentiment at 5.8, and Peer rank at 6.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Tsakos Energy Navigation has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, including individual beats of 35%, 59%, 19%, and 11% — and the forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.08 offers one of the lowest valuations relative to earnings growth in the energy shipping peer group.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current beat streak as tanker rates soften.
- P2Forward earnings are projected to decline approximately 52% from trailing levels, producing a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times versus a trailing price-to-earnings of 6 times — an extreme divergence between current earnings power and projected future earnings that signals the market expects a significant tanker rate correction.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 25 times on downward earnings estimate revisions, indicating projected earnings decline is larger than 52%.
- P3The put-to-call ratio stands at 27.4 — extremely elevated compared to any typical stock — indicating that options market participants are positioned approximately 27 times more heavily for downside than upside, reflecting strong institutional conviction that the stock will decline from current levels.
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 15.0 for more than 90 days, indicating sustained institutional conviction of more than 15 times more bearish than bullish options positioning.
- P4Tsakos earns 25% net margins, holds a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, and has grown revenue 28% year-over-year — providing a buffer of balance sheet strength and profitability that supports the company through a potential tanker rate softening cycle.
Trip ifNet margins drop below 15% in any reported quarter, more than 10 percentage points below the current 25% level.