Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.81
- ▸Attractively valued
TDW · Why this verdict
Why Tidewater (TDW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tidewater earns strong margins of 22% with free cash flow at 129% of net income and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9, but revenue has declined 43% year-over-year and the company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters — including an 82% miss in the most recent quarter — while the stock price has essentially reached the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tidewater converts 129% of net income into free cash flow, earns 22% net margins, and carries a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — placing it in the upper tier of energy services peers on both cash quality and balance sheet health. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income and net margins remain above 18% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEnergy services cash flows are highly sensitive to offshore oil and gas spending cycles; the 43% revenue decline signals that the market for platform supply vessels has already deteriorated significantly, which may compress margins in coming quarters. | ||
Revenue has declined 43% year-over-year, yielding a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant deterioration that raises questions about the sustainability of current margin levels and the trajectory of the core platform supply vessel business. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, signaling a cyclical recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterPlatform supply vessel utilization can recover quickly when oil prices firm or offshore drilling programs restart; the company's 8 out of 9 Piotroski score suggests the balance sheet can absorb a cyclical trough without distress. | ||
Platform supply vessels represent 72.3% of Tidewater's revenue — a single-product concentration that creates amplified exposure to offshore vessel day-rate cycles, as noted in the 10-K filing risk factors. Bear case | Platform supply vessel revenue share diversifies below 65% or day-rates for this segment rise more than 10% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDominant share in a single vessel category can be a competitive strength during up-cycles; operators with concentrated fleets can bid preferentially on large multi-vessel contracts that diversified competitors cannot fulfill. | ||
Tidewater missed earnings estimates by 82% and 41% in the last two reported quarters after two strong beats — a reversal suggesting that the operating environment has deteriorated faster than analysts anticipated. Earnings | Earnings surprise rises above 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, ending the two-quarter miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two prior beats of 206% and 20% show the company can surprise positively in favorable operating conditions; the recent misses may reflect temporary day-rate softness rather than a permanent earnings reset. | ||
Tidewater converts 129% of net income into free cash flow, earns 22% net margins, and carries a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — placing it in the upper tier of energy services peers on both cash quality and balance sheet health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income and net margins remain above 18% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterEnergy services cash flows are highly sensitive to offshore oil and gas spending cycles; the 43% revenue decline signals that the market for platform supply vessels has already deteriorated significantly, which may compress margins in coming quarters.
Revenue has declined 43% year-over-year, yielding a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant deterioration that raises questions about the sustainability of current margin levels and the trajectory of the core platform supply vessel business.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive on a year-over-year basis in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, signaling a cyclical recovery.
CounterPlatform supply vessel utilization can recover quickly when oil prices firm or offshore drilling programs restart; the company's 8 out of 9 Piotroski score suggests the balance sheet can absorb a cyclical trough without distress.
Platform supply vessels represent 72.3% of Tidewater's revenue — a single-product concentration that creates amplified exposure to offshore vessel day-rate cycles, as noted in the 10-K filing risk factors.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Platform supply vessel revenue share diversifies below 65% or day-rates for this segment rise more than 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterDominant share in a single vessel category can be a competitive strength during up-cycles; operators with concentrated fleets can bid preferentially on large multi-vessel contracts that diversified competitors cannot fulfill.
Tidewater missed earnings estimates by 82% and 41% in the last two reported quarters after two strong beats — a reversal suggesting that the operating environment has deteriorated faster than analysts anticipated.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise rises above 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, ending the two-quarter miss streak.
CounterThe two prior beats of 206% and 20% show the company can surprise positively in favorable operating conditions; the recent misses may reflect temporary day-rate softness rather than a permanent earnings reset.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 129% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -43%
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.61
Upside
+15.3%
Downside
9.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Technical at 7.0, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Momentum at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Tidewater converts 129% of net income into free cash flow, earns 22% net margins, and carries a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 — placing it in the upper tier of energy services peers on both cash quality and balance sheet health.
Trip ifNet margins drop below 15% in any reported quarter, more than 7 percentage points below the current 22% level.
- P2Revenue has declined 43% year-over-year, yielding a near-zero revenue growth score — a significant deterioration that raises questions about the sustainability of current margin levels and the trajectory of the core platform supply vessel business.
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below -20% year-over-year for more than 3 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Platform supply vessels represent 72.3% of Tidewater's revenue — a single-product concentration that creates amplified exposure to offshore vessel day-rate cycles, as noted in the 10-K filing risk factors.
Trip ifPlatform supply vessel day-rates decline by more than 20% from current levels, signaling accelerating offshore spending cuts.
- P4Tidewater missed earnings estimates by 82% and 41% in the last two reported quarters after two strong beats — a reversal suggesting that the operating environment has deteriorated faster than analysts anticipated.
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -40% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the miss pattern is structural rather than transitory.