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Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L (TAK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Sell if holding. At $16.61, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived... Read more

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield679.53%
IncomeYield3.98%(5y avg 4.59%)Payout80.03%at-risk
Stop $16.11Target $17.42(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$20.50+23.4%3 analysts
$17.42our TP
$16.61price
$20.50mean
$22

Sell if holding. At $16.61, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.7
P/E (Fwd)31.3
Mkt Cap$52.5B
EV/EBITDA3.6
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE2.6%
Rev Growth3.9%
Beta0.10
Dividend3.98%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
4.4
Value Rank
5.6

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.5
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.98Resistance $17.72

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $16.61, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $16.11. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TAK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.42 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $16.11. Stop-loss: $16.11.

What are the risks of investing in TAK?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is TAK overvalued or undervalued?

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L trades at a P/E of 43.7 (forward 31.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TAK?

19 analysts cover TAK with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L do?Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing...

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, immunology, oncology, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Alofisel, Dexilant, Pantoloc/Controloc, Adynovate/Adynovi, Feiba Fiber, Recombinate, Hemofil, Immunate, Immunine, Takhzyro, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Elaprase, Replagal, Advate, Flexbumin, Vpriv, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Exkivity, FRUZAQLA, Ninlaro, Velcade, Azilva, Iclusig, Leuplin/Enantone, Adcetris, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, QDENGA, and Alunbrig brands. It has in-licensing agreements with BioMarin, Luxna Biotech, GlaxoSmithKline, Halozyme, and Kamada; collaborations with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., Seagen Inc., Anima Biotech, Denali Therapeutics, KSQ Therapeutics, Noile-Immune Biotech, Center for iPS Cell Research Institute, Kyoto University (CiRA), and Charles River Laboratories; licensing agreement with Mirum Pharmaceuticals, UCSD/Fortis Advisors, PeptiDream, MD Anderson Cancer Center, and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries; collaboration and licensing agreement with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc., Engitix, Genevant Sciences Corporation, Sosei, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Exelixi GlaxoSmithKline, Heidelberg Pharma, HUTCHMED, KM Biologics, and Ovid Therapeutics Inc.; and collaboration with ZEDIRA GmbH and Dr. Falk Pharma GmbH. It has research collaboration and licensing agreement with Crescendo Biologics. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

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