Takeda Pharmaceutical trades at an attractively valued forward price-to-earnings of 29.8x for a global pharma with 186% free cash flow conversion and 31% analyst upside, but three consecutive earnings misses and weak revenue growth signal the business has not yet demonstrated the execution quality needed to close the valuation gap.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion↑Improving
- Analyst Consensus Significant Upside↓Deteriorating
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Record↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L (TAK) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away).
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L
Latest news
- NEWS Analyst consensus raises target for Takeda stock to USD 20.74 - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Tak Lee Machinery Holdings Limited Reports Earnings Results for the Full Year Ended July 31, 2026 - www.marketscreener.c — www.marketscreener.com Oct 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Takeda stock: Analysts lift target for Takeda stock to USD 20.74 - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS Oct 21, 2026 positive
- NEWS TAK stock: results scheduled for October 29, 2026 pre-market - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Takeda stock: TradingView reports USD 20.58 to USD 20.74 target rise for Takeda stock - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 20, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $20.75 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.2% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $19.83. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $19.55 reached (−5.8% from $20.75); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $19.83. Stop-loss: $19.83.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.2% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L trades at a P/E of 296.4 (forward 39.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts rate TAK, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $23.
What does Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L do?Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing...
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Takhzyro, Advate, Elaprase, Replagal, Vpriv, Adynovate/Adynovi, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Flexbumin, Adcetris, Leuplin/Enantone, Ninlaro, Iclusig, FRUZAQLA, Alunbrig, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA brands. It has licensing and collaboration for the development and commercialization of products with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Cour Pharmaceuticals, Engitix, Halozyme, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Ucsd/Fortis Advisors, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Ac Immune, Acurastem, Anima Biotech, Biomarin, Denali Therapeutics, Luxna Biotech, Neurocrine Biosciences, Peptidream, Abbvie, Adimab, Ascentage Pharma, Crescendo Biologics, Exelixis, F-Star, Gsk, Heidelberg Pharma, Innovent Biologics, Keros Therapeutics, Kumquat Biosciences, Protagonist Therapeutics, Halozyme, Kamada, Johnson & Johnson/Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Previpharma, Novavax, Bridgene Biosciences, Charles River Laboratories, Iambic Therapeutics, Ipsen, Km Biologics, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, and Nabla Bio. The company operates in Japan, the United States. Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.