Value
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
SYNA · Why this verdict
Why Synaptics (SYNA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Synaptics has maintained a perfect four-quarter earnings beat record and trades at a low price-to-sales multiple relative to semiconductor peers, but high short interest of 20% and a quality score just below the minimum threshold reflect real concerns about operating profitability and return metrics.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Return on equity, return on assets, and net margin all register at zero in the quality scoring, with the overall quality score of 3.9 sitting just below the minimum acceptable threshold, indicating the business is not yet generating adequate returns on capital. Quality breakdown | The quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as operating margin turns positive and return metrics recover. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF is positive at a 12% margin with a 2.7% FCF yield, meaning the business generates real cash despite accounting losses, which is more sustainable than the zero GAAP returns suggest. | ||
A 20% short interest ratio and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.31 indicate that a meaningful segment of market participants is betting on further price declines from the current level of $140. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 15% within 6 months as profitability metrics improve and the quality floor concern is resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterShort interest in semiconductor names during downturns can be a contrarian buy signal; if the earnings beat streak continues, short covering could provide a meaningful price boost. | ||
Synaptics has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 66% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter even against a negative estimate, demonstrating resilience in earnings delivery. Earnings | The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average EPS surprise remaining above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterBeating a deeply negative estimate (actual was negative $0.21 versus an estimate of negative $0.63) inflates the beat percentage without representing genuine earnings power improvement. | ||
The company's peer-relative value score of 7.2 out of 10 indicates it trades at a more attractive price-to-sales multiple than most semiconductor peers, and analyst sentiment is positive with a reported upside signal. Peer rank | The price-to-sales valuation premium relative to peers narrows by at least 10% over 12 months, as earnings recovery supports multiple expansion. | →Stable |
| CounterSemiconductor peer-relative discounts often reflect genuine growth disadvantages; a forward price-to-earnings of 26.6x is still expensive for a company with negative operating margin. | ||
Return on equity, return on assets, and net margin all register at zero in the quality scoring, with the overall quality score of 3.9 sitting just below the minimum acceptable threshold, indicating the business is not yet generating adequate returns on capital.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months as operating margin turns positive and return metrics recover.
CounterFCF is positive at a 12% margin with a 2.7% FCF yield, meaning the business generates real cash despite accounting losses, which is more sustainable than the zero GAAP returns suggest.
A 20% short interest ratio and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.31 indicate that a meaningful segment of market participants is betting on further price declines from the current level of $140.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% within 6 months as profitability metrics improve and the quality floor concern is resolved.
CounterShort interest in semiconductor names during downturns can be a contrarian buy signal; if the earnings beat streak continues, short covering could provide a meaningful price boost.
Synaptics has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 66% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter even against a negative estimate, demonstrating resilience in earnings delivery.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average EPS surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterBeating a deeply negative estimate (actual was negative $0.21 versus an estimate of negative $0.63) inflates the beat percentage without representing genuine earnings power improvement.
The company's peer-relative value score of 7.2 out of 10 indicates it trades at a more attractive price-to-sales multiple than most semiconductor peers, and analyst sentiment is positive with a reported upside signal.
→StablePeer rank
- Expectation
- The price-to-sales valuation premium relative to peers narrows by at least 10% over 12 months, as earnings recovery supports multiple expansion.
CounterSemiconductor peer-relative discounts often reflect genuine growth disadvantages; a forward price-to-earnings of 26.6x is still expensive for a company with negative operating margin.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 12%, FCF yield 2.9%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,452,294 (0.049% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (5.3%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.5 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 20%
- ▸High IV: 87%
- ▸Above max pain $75
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.80
Upside
-12.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.96>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 6.6 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.6, Technical at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 2.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Synaptics has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last four quarters, including a 66% beat in the most recent May 2026 quarter even against a negative estimate, demonstrating resilience in earnings delivery.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters, ending the beat streak.
- P2The company's peer-relative value score of 7.2 out of 10 indicates it trades at a more attractive price-to-sales multiple than most semiconductor peers, and analyst sentiment is positive with a reported upside signal.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 35x without a corresponding improvement in operating margin, indicating the valuation has become more stretched rather than improving.
- P3Return on equity, return on assets, and net margin all register at zero in the quality scoring, with the overall quality score of 3.9 sitting just below the minimum acceptable threshold, indicating the business is not yet generating adequate returns on capital.
Trip ifThe quality score remains below 4.0 for more than 4 consecutive reported periods, indicating no progress toward the minimum acceptable quality threshold.
- P4A 20% short interest ratio and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.31 indicate that a meaningful segment of market participants is betting on further price declines from the current level of $140.
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float, indicating increasing conviction among short sellers beyond the current 20% level.