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Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company ($10.81B assets) operating 52 banking centers in the Houston MSA, Beaumont MSA, and Dallas, focused on commercial banking for small-to-medium businesses. A pending merger with Prosperity Bancshares was announced January 27, 2026,... Read more

$37.32+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#112 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.57%(5y avg 1.90%)Payout28.16%sustainable
Stop $35.84Target $37.36(resistance)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$38.00+1.8%2 analysts
$37.36our TP
$37.32price
$38.00mean
$32
$44

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Stellar Bancorp, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.0%
ROE6.4%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.73
Dividend1.57%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHouston and Beaumont MSAs
    10-K Item 1A: 'We conduct our operations almost exclusively in the Houston and Beaumont MSAs.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
2.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
1.1
Macd
1.6
Obv
4.6
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.17Resistance $38.12

Price Targets

$36
$37
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STEL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.32, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $37.36 (+0.1%), stop $35.84 (−4.1%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.36 (+0.9% upside). Target $37.36 (+0.1%), stop $35.84 (−4.1%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Stop-loss: $35.84.

What are the risks of investing in STEL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is STEL overvalued or undervalued?

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STEL?

9 analysts cover STEL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Stellar Bancorp, Inc. do?Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company ($10.81B assets) operating 52 banking centers in the Houston MSA,...

Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company ($10.81B assets) operating 52 banking centers in the Houston MSA, Beaumont MSA, and Dallas, focused on commercial banking for small-to-medium businesses. A pending merger with Prosperity Bancshares was announced January 27, 2026, expected to close Q2 2026.

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