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Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company headquartered in Houston providing commercial banking services primarily to small- and medium-sized businesses in the Houston and Beaumont MSAs. As of December 31, 2025, it had $10.81 billion in total assets, $7.30 billion in... Read more

$37.64-0.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#110 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $36.46Target $37.53(resistance)A.R:R -2.8:1
Analyst target$38.00+1.0%2 analysts
$37.53our TP
$37.64price
$38.00mean
$32
$44

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 92d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.0%
ROE6.4%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta
Dividend1.55%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHouston and Beaumont MSAs
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's business is concentrated in and largely dependent upon the growth and welfare of its market. We conduct our operations almost exclusively in the Houston and Beaumont MSAs.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
3.2
GatesA.R:R -2.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 92d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.26Resistance $38.30

Price Targets

$36
$38
A.Upside-0.3%
A.R:R-2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (92d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STEL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $37.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $37.53 (-0.3%), stop $36.46 (−3.2%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.53 (-0.2% upside). Target $37.53 (-0.3%), stop $36.46 (−3.2%), A.R:R -2.8:1. Stop-loss: $36.46.

What are the risks of investing in STEL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Houston and Beaumont MSAs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is STEL overvalued or undervalued?

Stellar Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STEL?

9 analysts cover STEL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $38.

What does Stellar Bancorp, Inc. do?Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company headquartered in Houston providing commercial banking services...

Stellar Bancorp is a Texas bank holding company headquartered in Houston providing commercial banking services primarily to small- and medium-sized businesses in the Houston and Beaumont MSAs. As of December 31, 2025, it had $10.81 billion in total assets, $7.30 billion in loans, and 52 banking centers. In January 2026, the Company entered a merger agreement with Prosperity Bancshares expected to close Q2 2026.

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