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1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $70.20. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $73.14. Engine's entry $70.20 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away).

1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company with $9.06B in assets as of December 31, 2025, operating through 78 banking centers in Indiana and Michigan plus a 15-location Specialty Finance Group financing construction equipment, aircraft, and vehicle fleets... Read more

$73.14+6.7% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#101 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $70.20(50-day MA)Stop $67.18Target $74.91(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$79.67+8.9%3 analysts
$74.91our TP
$73.14price
$79.67mean
$88

Wait for pullback to $70.20. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $73.14. Engine's entry $70.20 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.7% away)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.7%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth5.1%
Beta0.57
Dividend2.37%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$65-11.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioconstruction and transportation equipment loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'The 1st Source Specialty Finance Group loan and lease portfolio consists of commercial loans and leases secured by construction and transportation equipment, including aircraft, autos, trucks, and vans.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicMexico and Brazil aircraft portfolio
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our aircraft portfolio has foreign exposure, particularly in Mexico and Brazil. Currency fluctuations could have a negative impact on our client's cost of paying dollar denominated debts'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.5
Revenue Growth
3.8
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.26Resistance $76.44

Price Targets

$67
$70
$75
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R-1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 4.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SRCE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $70.20. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $73.14. Engine's entry $70.20 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $74.91 (+2.4%), stop $67.18 (−8.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SRCE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.91 (+6.7% upside). Target $74.91 (+2.4%), stop $67.18 (−8.9%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $67.18.

What are the risks of investing in SRCE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away); Weak growth.

Is SRCE overvalued or undervalued?

1st Source Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SRCE?

9 analysts cover SRCE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $80.

What does 1st Source Corporation do?1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company with $9.06B in assets as of December 31, 2025, operating...

1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company with $9.06B in assets as of December 31, 2025, operating through 78 banking centers in Indiana and Michigan plus a 15-location Specialty Finance Group financing construction equipment, aircraft, and vehicle fleets nationally. Revenue from net interest income on commercial and consumer loans, leases, and fee-based trust and wealth advisory services ($2.1B AUA).

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