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1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company ($9.06B assets) serving northern Indiana and Michigan through 78 banking centers, plus a nationwide Specialty Finance Group financing construction equipment, aircraft, and commercial fleets. Primary regulators are the... Read more

$72.20+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#113 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.38%(5y avg 2.51%)Payout23.93%sustainable
Stop $69.02Target $74.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$79.67+10.3%3 analysts
$74.47our TP
$72.20price
$79.67mean
$88

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — 1st Source Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn37.7%
ROE12.6%
Rev Growth5.1%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$35-51.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-24Item 5.02LOW
    At 2026 Annual Meeting, shareholders approved amendments to EIP Plan, SDIP, and Restricted Stock Plan, removing the 0.60% annual share issuance cap from the EIP Plan and other modifications. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.5
Revenue Growth
3.8
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $70.66Resistance $75.99

Price Targets

$69
$74
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SRCE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $74.47 (+3.1%), stop $69.02 (−4.6%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SRCE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.47 (+3.1% upside). Target $74.47 (+3.1%), stop $69.02 (−4.6%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $69.02.

What are the risks of investing in SRCE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is SRCE overvalued or undervalued?

1st Source Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SRCE?

9 analysts cover SRCE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $80.

What does 1st Source Corporation do?1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company ($9.06B assets) serving northern Indiana and Michigan through...

1st Source Corporation is an Indiana bank holding company ($9.06B assets) serving northern Indiana and Michigan through 78 banking centers, plus a nationwide Specialty Finance Group financing construction equipment, aircraft, and commercial fleets. Primary regulators are the Indiana DFI and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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