Value
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
SNEX · Why this verdict
Why StoneX Group (SNEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
StoneX Group has delivered 3 consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of 18.3% and 24% revenue growth, but the stock trades at or above analyst targets with negative asymmetry, elevated put/call ratio of 2.11, and below-floor business quality in the capital markets sector.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
StoneX achieved 24% year-over-year revenue growth and a growth score of 9.2 out of 10, placing it in the top tier of financial services companies by revenue momentum. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital markets revenue is highly cyclical and correlated with market volatility levels; a decline in client trading volumes during low-volatility periods could sharply compress topline growth. | ||
StoneX has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.3%, including a 39% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting strong execution in financial services intermediation. Earnings | The company delivers at least 2 more earnings beats over the next 4 quarters, sustaining positive average surprises above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent beat of 39% may reflect unusual market conditions rather than a durable structural improvement, and the forward multiple of 20.4x already prices in sustained strong execution. | ||
The stock is priced at $135.73 against an analyst target of $135.70 — essentially at target — with negative asymmetry of -1.53x, meaning new investors face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value. Warnings | Analyst consensus price targets are raised above $165, restoring at least 20% upside from current levels, within 12 months following continued beat-and-raise quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum at 8.9 out of 10 with volume acceleration of 3.2x average and RSI at 76 suggests the stock may be in a momentum surge that can carry it well above analyst targets before consolidating. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.11 indicates that options market participants are placing more than twice as many bearish bets as bullish bets, reflecting a hedging-heavy market that expects near-term downside risk. Key risks | The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 over 3 months as the stock's rally forces bearish option positions to unwind. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a financial services firm with high beta, elevated put/call ratios often reflect institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than speculative short bets, and may not predict price direction. | ||
StoneX achieved 24% year-over-year revenue growth and a growth score of 9.2 out of 10, placing it in the top tier of financial services companies by revenue momentum.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterCapital markets revenue is highly cyclical and correlated with market volatility levels; a decline in client trading volumes during low-volatility periods could sharply compress topline growth.
StoneX has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.3%, including a 39% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting strong execution in financial services intermediation.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least 2 more earnings beats over the next 4 quarters, sustaining positive average surprises above 10%.
CounterThe most recent beat of 39% may reflect unusual market conditions rather than a durable structural improvement, and the forward multiple of 20.4x already prices in sustained strong execution.
The stock is priced at $135.73 against an analyst target of $135.70 — essentially at target — with negative asymmetry of -1.53x, meaning new investors face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price targets are raised above $165, restoring at least 20% upside from current levels, within 12 months following continued beat-and-raise quarters.
CounterStrong momentum at 8.9 out of 10 with volume acceleration of 3.2x average and RSI at 76 suggests the stock may be in a momentum surge that can carry it well above analyst targets before consolidating.
A put/call ratio of 2.11 indicates that options market participants are placing more than twice as many bearish bets as bullish bets, reflecting a hedging-heavy market that expects near-term downside risk.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 1.0 over 3 months as the stock's rally forces bearish option positions to unwind.
CounterFor a financial services firm with high beta, elevated put/call ratios often reflect institutional hedging of existing long positions rather than speculative short bets, and may not predict price direction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.2 |
| Net margin | 0.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 83)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $84,732,512 (0.775% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.55
Upside
-23.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.2 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.1, Quality at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1StoneX achieved 24% year-over-year revenue growth and a growth score of 9.2 out of 10, placing it in the top tier of financial services companies by revenue momentum.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the momentum cycle is decelerating.
- P2StoneX has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.3%, including a 39% beat in the most recent quarter, reflecting strong execution in financial services intermediation.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the beat streak has reversed.
- P3The stock is priced at $135.73 against an analyst target of $135.70 — essentially at target — with negative asymmetry of -1.53x, meaning new investors face a negative expected return relative to consensus fair value.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $165, restoring at least 20% upside from the current price of $135.73.
- P4A put/call ratio of 2.11 indicates that options market participants are placing more than twice as many bearish bets as bullish bets, reflecting a hedging-heavy market that expects near-term downside risk.
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.0 or remains above 2.0 for more than 60 consecutive days, signaling sustained bearish positioning.