Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
SLGN · Why this verdict
Why Silgan Holdings (SLGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Silgan Holdings trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.19 and analysts see 31% upside, but a confirmed price downtrend, mixed earnings history, and an officer departure signal create near-term uncertainty despite the attractive valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Silgan trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.19, which is below 1.0 and indicates the market is pricing in little or no future earnings growth despite the company's historical track record in packaging. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings ratio expands toward 13 times as investors recognize the disconnect between valuation and earnings power, driving the stock to at least $46 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPackaging companies facing leverage penalties and a confirmed downtrend often deserve lower multiples; the 2.0 debt-to-equity ratio adds risk and may explain why the market is discounting the stock. | ||
An officer departure or appointment was flagged in recent regulatory filings, introducing management execution uncertainty at a time when the company is navigating a price downtrend and leverage reduction objectives. Gates warning | New leadership is publicly confirmed and no further executive departures are announced in the next 6 months, providing continuity to the recovery thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterRoutine executive transitions in well-established companies often have limited operational impact; Silgan's institutional packaging operations are largely process-driven and less dependent on any single executive. | ||
Silgan beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters and missed in 2 quarters, with recent beats of 4.9% and 4.4% in the most recent two quarters suggesting a potential improvement trend after the prior misses. Earnings | Earnings beat rate improves to at least 3 of 4 quarters over the next year with average surprise exceeding 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe prior 2 misses included a -3.8% shortfall, and earnings guidance is unknown; a return to misses would confirm the company is not executing a clean recovery. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at 3.5% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend, though MACD is improving and RSI has reached 71 suggesting a possible near-term recovery bounce from oversold conditions. Momentum breakdown | Stock price crosses above its 200-day moving average within 6 months and sustains above it for at least 30 consecutive days. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 71 while below the 200-day moving average is a characteristic bear rally signal; in the absence of a catalyst the overbought reading could lead to another leg down. | ||
Silgan trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.19, which is below 1.0 and indicates the market is pricing in little or no future earnings growth despite the company's historical track record in packaging.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings ratio expands toward 13 times as investors recognize the disconnect between valuation and earnings power, driving the stock to at least $46 within 12 months.
CounterPackaging companies facing leverage penalties and a confirmed downtrend often deserve lower multiples; the 2.0 debt-to-equity ratio adds risk and may explain why the market is discounting the stock.
An officer departure or appointment was flagged in recent regulatory filings, introducing management execution uncertainty at a time when the company is navigating a price downtrend and leverage reduction objectives.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- New leadership is publicly confirmed and no further executive departures are announced in the next 6 months, providing continuity to the recovery thesis.
CounterRoutine executive transitions in well-established companies often have limited operational impact; Silgan's institutional packaging operations are largely process-driven and less dependent on any single executive.
Silgan beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters and missed in 2 quarters, with recent beats of 4.9% and 4.4% in the most recent two quarters suggesting a potential improvement trend after the prior misses.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate improves to at least 3 of 4 quarters over the next year with average surprise exceeding 3%.
CounterThe prior 2 misses included a -3.8% shortfall, and earnings guidance is unknown; a return to misses would confirm the company is not executing a clean recovery.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at 3.5% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend, though MACD is improving and RSI has reached 71 suggesting a possible near-term recovery bounce from oversold conditions.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price crosses above its 200-day moving average within 6 months and sustains above it for at least 30 consecutive days.
CounterAn RSI of 71 while below the 200-day moving average is a characteristic bear rally signal; in the absence of a catalyst the overbought reading could lead to another leg down.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.5 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 94)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 94 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 11.00
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 188.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.17
Upside
+2.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 94
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.0, and Momentum at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Silgan trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.19, which is below 1.0 and indicates the market is pricing in little or no future earnings growth despite the company's historical track record in packaging.
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings ratio expands above 16 times without a corresponding earnings increase, indicating the valuation gap has closed and the thesis is complete.
- P2Silgan beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters and missed in 2 quarters, with recent beats of 4.9% and 4.4% in the most recent two quarters suggesting a potential improvement trend after the prior misses.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 5% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P3The stock is below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at 3.5% per month, indicating a confirmed downtrend, though MACD is improving and RSI has reached 71 suggesting a possible near-term recovery bounce from oversold conditions.
Trip ifStock price drops below $35, more than 14% below the current price of $40.74.
- P4An officer departure or appointment was flagged in recent regulatory filings, introducing management execution uncertainty at a time when the company is navigating a price downtrend and leverage reduction objectives.
Trip ifMore than 2 additional executive departures are announced within 6 months.