Should you buy Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID)?
Updated
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional scores below the minimum quality threshold with a Piotroski F-Score of only 2/9, four consecutive earnings misses, and a confirmed falling-knife chart pattern, presenting a fundamentally challenged risk profile with no discernible near-term catalyst for reversal.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is exhibiting a falling-knife technical pattern with a death cross, all key moving averages above the current price, RSI at 39, and a confirmed downtrend, meaning momentum indicators offer no technical support for near-term recovery. V9 | Price rises above the 50-day moving average and holds there for at least 15 trading days, with RSI exceeding 45, indicating the falling trend has stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price decline suggests some accumulation may be occurring, which could precede a technical reversal. | ||
At the current price of $1.22, the analyst consensus target has been exceeded with negative 14.1% implied upside and asymmetry ratio of negative 1.06, meaning the stock trades above where analysts believe fair value lies. Warnings | Analyst price targets rise to at least $1.45, more than 19% above current levels, before the stock can be considered attractively valued relative to consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage may be thin or stale, and with only a value score of 5.5 driven by attractive EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales, a re-rating could occur independently of analyst revisions. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last four reported quarters, with an average negative surprise of negative 139%, indicating a structural gap between analyst expectations and actual business performance. Earnings | EPS surprise improves to above negative 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, suggesting the worst of earnings delivery failures is passing. | →Stable |
| CounterSeveral quarters had negative estimate baselines, meaning even small losses versus low expectations qualify as misses; the bar for a positive surprise is not as high as the headline miss rate implies. | ||
The stock is exhibiting a falling-knife technical pattern with a death cross, all key moving averages above the current price, RSI at 39, and a confirmed downtrend, meaning momentum indicators offer no technical support for near-term recovery.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price rises above the 50-day moving average and holds there for at least 15 trading days, with RSI exceeding 45, indicating the falling trend has stabilized.
CounterRising on-balance volume despite the price decline suggests some accumulation may be occurring, which could precede a technical reversal.
At the current price of $1.22, the analyst consensus target has been exceeded with negative 14.1% implied upside and asymmetry ratio of negative 1.06, meaning the stock trades above where analysts believe fair value lies.
→Stable- Expectation
- Analyst price targets rise to at least $1.45, more than 19% above current levels, before the stock can be considered attractively valued relative to consensus.
CounterAnalyst coverage may be thin or stale, and with only a value score of 5.5 driven by attractive EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales, a re-rating could occur independently of analyst revisions.
The company has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last four reported quarters, with an average negative surprise of negative 139%, indicating a structural gap between analyst expectations and actual business performance.
→Stable- Expectation
- EPS surprise improves to above negative 20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, suggesting the worst of earnings delivery failures is passing.
CounterSeveral quarters had negative estimate baselines, meaning even small losses versus low expectations qualify as misses; the bar for a positive surprise is not as high as the headline miss rate implies.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
A Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 reflects broad weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency indicators, classifying the company as a financially distressed steel producer with negative free cash flow equal to 5% of revenue.
→Stable- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score rises above 4 within two annual reporting periods, showing meaningful improvement in at least profitability metrics.
CounterSteel companies in commodity downturns frequently show depressed Piotroski scores temporarily; a commodity price recovery could rapidly improve margins and restore multiple indicators.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has missed earnings estimates in all four of the last four reported quarters, with an average negative surprise of negative 139%, indicating a structural gap between analyst expectations and actual business performance.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below negative 50% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the miss streak is worsening rather than stabilizing.
- P2A Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 reflects broad weakness across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency indicators, classifying the company as a financially distressed steel producer with negative free cash flow equal to 5% of revenue.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue drops below negative 10%, indicating the cash-burn rate is increasing beyond current negative 5% levels.
- P3The stock is exhibiting a falling-knife technical pattern with a death cross, all key moving averages above the current price, RSI at 39, and a confirmed downtrend, meaning momentum indicators offer no technical support for near-term recovery.
Trip ifStock price drops below $1.10, more than 9% below current price of $1.22, confirming the falling-knife pattern is accelerating.
- P4At the current price of $1.22, the analyst consensus target has been exceeded with negative 14.1% implied upside and asymmetry ratio of negative 1.06, meaning the stock trades above where analysts believe fair value lies.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $1.00, more than 18% below current levels, indicating analysts are reducing expectations further.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with high conviction, score 3.8/10 at $0.96. An L1 hard-floor gate blocked the positive-verdict path — Quality below minimum threshold. Co-failing gates ( MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read; dimensional pillars cannot lift the engine output above the verdict floor while the L1 gate is active.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $0.96, with structural invalidation at $0.93. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 2.54 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bear side: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0). Active engine warnings: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0), V9 Gate Failed: MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5, V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot.
The dominant failed gate is momentum at 1.7 vs threshold 4.5 (with co-failures: reward-to-risk, death cross). SELL flips back toward HOLD if momentum recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is INSIDER:OK.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates SID — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bear case
- ▸Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)