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SIShoulder Innovations, Inc.Hold4.9·$18.23
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Shoulder Innovations combines an expensive valuation, weak quality (0/9 Piotroski), an already-reached analyst target with negative asymmetry, and a recent earnings-miss pattern that together keep it below the investment floor, even as a bullish technical breakout with strong momentum (7.7/10) offers a counter-signal.

Thesis pillars

  • Expensive Valuation↑Improving
  • Weak Piotroski Quality Concerns→Stable
  • Target Reached Negative Asymmetry↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. (SI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Unknown · Unknown

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Market cap $380M below $400M minimum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%).

$18.23+22.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10Peer score 3.8/10 · 12 Unknown
QualityF-score0 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $16.95Target $22.31(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$26.25+44.0%4 analysts
$22.31our TP
$18.23price
$26.25mean
$28

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Market cap $380M below $400M minimum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Market cap $380M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $380M below $400M minimum
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.5
P/E (Fwd)-11.5
Mkt Cap$380M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn—
ROE—
Rev Growth—
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F0/9

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-29Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Company entered a new Loan and Security Agreement with Stifel Bank for a $15.0 million term loan and a $30.0 million revolving facility; term loan proceeds were used to fully repay and terminate the prior Trinity Capital Loan Agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Piotroski F
0.0
Moat
5.0
Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9Quality concerns
Low model confidence on this dimension (29%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5INSIDER 1.34%=EXTREMEA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.56Resistance $20.03

Price Targets

$17
$22
A.Upside+22.4%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $380M below $400M minimum
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.23, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Market cap $380M below $400M minimum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%). Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Market cap $380M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $22.31 (+22.4%), stop $16.95 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.31 (+22.4% upside). Target $22.31 (+22.4%), stop $16.95 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $16.95.

What are the risks of investing in SI?

Market cap $380M below $400M minimum; Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-7.6% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -142.6%).

Is SI overvalued or undervalued?

Shoulder Innovations, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.5 (forward -11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SI?

12 analysts cover SI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $26.

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