Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 5.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.31
SE · Why this verdict
Why Sea (SE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sea Limited has a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, 47% year-over-year revenue growth, and an analyst consensus implying 62% upside, but a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average falling at -8.5% per month and 3 consecutive earnings misses mean the fundamental thesis is not yet translating into price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has a wide economic moat rating, a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, and revenue grew 47% year over year, establishing it as the growth leader in the internet retail sector with durable competitive advantages across its e-commerce, digital payments, and gaming segments. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 25% year over year in the next annual reporting period. | →Stable |
| CounterInternet retail in Southeast Asia faces intensifying competition from Temu, Lazada, and TikTok Shop; the moat rating may reflect historical market share rather than the current competitive position, and revenue growth rates typically compress dramatically as market penetration increases. | ||
The consensus analyst price target implies 62% upside from the current $86.66, reflecting that the analyst community sees a significant mispricing between the current depressed price and the company's long-term earnings power as it scales across multiple digital verticals. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $115, more than 32% above the current $86.66, within 18 months as the market begins to assign credit for the moat and growth trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterA 62% analyst upside combined with 3 consecutive earnings misses signals that analyst models are persistently disconnected from actual results; the discount may persist as long as execution disappointments continue. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of -6%, including a -19.4% miss in November 2025, indicating that despite the strong growth narrative, management has struggled to deliver earnings at the pace analysts expect. Earnings | EPS surprise rises above 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that management guidance has been reset to achievable levels. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a 5.1% positive beat, and earnings estimates are trending upward, which may signal the guidance reset is already underway and the miss streak is ending. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average slope at -8.5% over 30 days — the steepest downward trend in this analysis — with falling on-balance volume confirming active institutional distribution, representing a hard technical block on new positions. V9 | The 200-day moving average slope turns from -8.5% to flat or positive over 60 days, signaling that the downtrend is decelerating. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending upward even as price has declined — a classic earnings-revision-divergence setup where the fundamental case is improving while the price lags — which historically precedes a significant re-rating. | ||
The company has a wide economic moat rating, a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, and revenue grew 47% year over year, establishing it as the growth leader in the internet retail sector with durable competitive advantages across its e-commerce, digital payments, and gaming segments.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 25% year over year in the next annual reporting period.
CounterInternet retail in Southeast Asia faces intensifying competition from Temu, Lazada, and TikTok Shop; the moat rating may reflect historical market share rather than the current competitive position, and revenue growth rates typically compress dramatically as market penetration increases.
The consensus analyst price target implies 62% upside from the current $86.66, reflecting that the analyst community sees a significant mispricing between the current depressed price and the company's long-term earnings power as it scales across multiple digital verticals.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $115, more than 32% above the current $86.66, within 18 months as the market begins to assign credit for the moat and growth trajectory.
CounterA 62% analyst upside combined with 3 consecutive earnings misses signals that analyst models are persistently disconnected from actual results; the discount may persist as long as execution disappointments continue.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of -6%, including a -19.4% miss in November 2025, indicating that despite the strong growth narrative, management has struggled to deliver earnings at the pace analysts expect.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise rises above 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating that management guidance has been reset to achievable levels.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a 5.1% positive beat, and earnings estimates are trending upward, which may signal the guidance reset is already underway and the miss streak is ending.
The stock is in a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average slope at -8.5% over 30 days — the steepest downward trend in this analysis — with falling on-balance volume confirming active institutional distribution, representing a hard technical block on new positions.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns from -8.5% to flat or positive over 60 days, signaling that the downtrend is decelerating.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending upward even as price has declined — a classic earnings-revision-divergence setup where the fundamental case is improving while the price lags — which historically precedes a significant re-rating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 47% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $164,724,173 (0.293% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 6.5 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| put call | 2.9 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.57
- ▸Above max pain $55
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:48d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.82
Upside
+36.3%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.57>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.9, Momentum at 6.7, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Insider at 3.4, and Catalyst at 3.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company has a wide economic moat rating, a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, and revenue grew 47% year over year, establishing it as the growth leader in the internet retail sector with durable competitive advantages across its e-commerce, digital payments, and gaming segments.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year, dropping more than 32 percentage points from the current 47% rate.
- P2The consensus analyst price target implies 62% upside from the current $86.66, reflecting that the analyst community sees a significant mispricing between the current depressed price and the company's long-term earnings power as it scales across multiple digital verticals.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target drops below $100, more than 15% below the implied 62% upside target, indicating the bull case is being revised down.
- P3The stock is in a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average slope at -8.5% over 30 days — the steepest downward trend in this analysis — with falling on-balance volume confirming active institutional distribution, representing a hard technical block on new positions.
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope steepens below -12% over any 30-day period, indicating the confirmed downtrend is accelerating rather than stabilizing.
- P4The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of -6%, including a -19.4% miss in November 2025, indicating that despite the strong growth narrative, management has struggled to deliver earnings at the pace analysts expect.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -15% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the miss streak has not ended despite the recent positive result.