Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
SBLK · Why this verdict
Why Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Star Bulk Carriers has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with a 36% average positive surprise, holds a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, and converts 162% of net income into free cash flow, but weak price momentum and price near the analyst target limit immediate upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 36.3%, including a 111% beat in August 2025, demonstrating that management operates conservatively relative to analyst expectations. Earnings | The earnings beat streak continues through at least 2 more quarters with each positive surprise above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterMarine shipping earnings are highly cyclical and dependent on dry bulk freight rates; a freight rate decline could quickly reverse the beat trend regardless of management quality. | ||
Free cash flow is 162% of net income with a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, indicating the company generates significantly more cash than its reported earnings suggest and maintains excellent balance sheet discipline. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 100% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming durable cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income in shipping companies often results from low capital expenditure cycles; the ratio may deteriorate sharply when the fleet requires reinvestment. | ||
Revenue grew 22% year over year, placing the company among the growth leaders in its sector and reflecting strong demand for dry bulk shipping capacity relative to fleet supply. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in the next annual reporting period. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping revenue growth at 22% is primarily driven by freight rate levels rather than volume growth; rates are notoriously volatile and a 20-30% decline in Baltic Dry Index could reverse the trend quickly. | ||
Price momentum is weak at 3.7 out of 10, with falling on-balance volume indicating distribution, and the stock is trading near its analyst target with negative asymmetry of -0.1%, meaning there is no technical upside cushion at the current price. Warnings | Price pulls back to at least 10% below the current level of $27.07, creating an entry point with more favorable reward-to-risk than the current 0.24 ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock being above its 200-day moving average despite weak short-term momentum may indicate a temporary consolidation before a continuation higher rather than a genuine reversal. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 36.3%, including a 111% beat in August 2025, demonstrating that management operates conservatively relative to analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak continues through at least 2 more quarters with each positive surprise above 5%.
CounterMarine shipping earnings are highly cyclical and dependent on dry bulk freight rates; a freight rate decline could quickly reverse the beat trend regardless of management quality.
Free cash flow is 162% of net income with a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, indicating the company generates significantly more cash than its reported earnings suggest and maintains excellent balance sheet discipline.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow relative to net income remains above 100% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming durable cash generation.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income in shipping companies often results from low capital expenditure cycles; the ratio may deteriorate sharply when the fleet requires reinvestment.
Revenue grew 22% year over year, placing the company among the growth leaders in its sector and reflecting strong demand for dry bulk shipping capacity relative to fleet supply.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in the next annual reporting period.
CounterShipping revenue growth at 22% is primarily driven by freight rate levels rather than volume growth; rates are notoriously volatile and a 20-30% decline in Baltic Dry Index could reverse the trend quickly.
Price momentum is weak at 3.7 out of 10, with falling on-balance volume indicating distribution, and the stock is trading near its analyst target with negative asymmetry of -0.1%, meaning there is no technical upside cushion at the current price.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Price pulls back to at least 10% below the current level of $27.07, creating an entry point with more favorable reward-to-risk than the current 0.24 ratio.
CounterThe stock being above its 200-day moving average despite weak short-term momentum may indicate a temporary consolidation before a continuation higher rather than a genuine reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 162% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $2,620,645,176 (91.535% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 3.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 9.7 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $19
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:41d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.96
Upside
+5.9%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 9.2; weakest: Momentum at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.2, Growth at 8.0, and Value at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Insider at 3.1, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company beat earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average positive surprise of 36.3%, including a 111% beat in August 2025, demonstrating that management operates conservatively relative to analyst expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the positive streak.
- P2Free cash flow is 162% of net income with a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9/9, indicating the company generates significantly more cash than its reported earnings suggest and maintains excellent balance sheet discipline.
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 80%, dropping more than 80 percentage points from the current 162% level.
- P3Revenue grew 22% year over year, placing the company among the growth leaders in its sector and reflecting strong demand for dry bulk shipping capacity relative to fleet supply.
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year over year, declining more than 17 percentage points from the current 22% rate.
- P4Price momentum is weak at 3.7 out of 10, with falling on-balance volume indicating distribution, and the stock is trading near its analyst target with negative asymmetry of -0.1%, meaning there is no technical upside cushion at the current price.
Trip ifStock price rises above $30, more than 10% above the current $27.07, restoring a favorable reward-to-risk ratio for new entries.