Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.01
RVLV · Why this verdict
Why Revolve Group (RVLV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revolve Group has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 50%, and analysts see 43% upside to consensus targets, but a confirmed death cross in moving averages, high debt-to-equity of 6.3, and a price trading below the 200-day moving average represent meaningful near-term headwinds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 50%, including a 137% beat in the November 2025 quarter, indicating management is consistently setting achievable guidance targets. Earnings | Earnings per share beats analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprises remaining above 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterVery large percentage beats against very small absolute EPS estimates can reflect analyst forecasting difficulty rather than true outperformance; a single quarter miss of negative 25% erases several quarters of gains in investor confidence. | ||
The debt-to-equity ratio of 6.3 is elevated and creates a leverage penalty, but the company is in a recovery setup after a death cross with momentum improving and MACD turning positive, suggesting it may be at the early stages of a technical reversal. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as earnings and cash flow are applied to balance sheet improvement, reducing leverage risk. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity of 6.3 in a consumer cyclical business that is below its 200-day moving average creates substantial financial risk if the consumer spending environment weakens, as high leverage amplifies operational downside into potential solvency concerns. | ||
Analysts maintain a consensus price target implying 43% upside from the current price of $20.77, with a combined analyst rating score of 7.17 out of 10, reflecting constructive views on the online luxury fashion market opportunity. Sentiment breakdown | Analyst consensus price target remains above $28, at least 35% above the current price, over the next 12 months as earnings execution supports the bull case. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock trades well below analyst targets because it is also below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market is discounting the fundamental bull case due to near-term execution risk in a consumer discretionary business facing macro uncertainty. | ||
A death cross pattern is forming with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day, though MACD has turned positive and RSI is at 63, indicating mixed technical signals where improving short-term momentum is at odds with the longer-term trend breakdown. V9 | The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, confirming that the recovery setup translates into a sustained uptrend. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath cross recoveries in consumer discretionary stocks are not guaranteed; the combination of high leverage, a below-200-day price, and 12% short interest creates a fragile technical situation where any earnings disappointment could trigger renewed selling. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 50%, including a 137% beat in the November 2025 quarter, indicating management is consistently setting achievable guidance targets.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share beats analyst estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprises remaining above 20%.
CounterVery large percentage beats against very small absolute EPS estimates can reflect analyst forecasting difficulty rather than true outperformance; a single quarter miss of negative 25% erases several quarters of gains in investor confidence.
The debt-to-equity ratio of 6.3 is elevated and creates a leverage penalty, but the company is in a recovery setup after a death cross with momentum improving and MACD turning positive, suggesting it may be at the early stages of a technical reversal.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as earnings and cash flow are applied to balance sheet improvement, reducing leverage risk.
CounterA debt-to-equity of 6.3 in a consumer cyclical business that is below its 200-day moving average creates substantial financial risk if the consumer spending environment weakens, as high leverage amplifies operational downside into potential solvency concerns.
Analysts maintain a consensus price target implying 43% upside from the current price of $20.77, with a combined analyst rating score of 7.17 out of 10, reflecting constructive views on the online luxury fashion market opportunity.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target remains above $28, at least 35% above the current price, over the next 12 months as earnings execution supports the bull case.
CounterThe stock trades well below analyst targets because it is also below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market is discounting the fundamental bull case due to near-term execution risk in a consumer discretionary business facing macro uncertainty.
A death cross pattern is forming with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day, though MACD has turned positive and RSI is at 63, indicating mixed technical signals where improving short-term momentum is at odds with the longer-term trend breakdown.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average within 6 months, confirming that the recovery setup translates into a sustained uptrend.
CounterDeath cross recoveries in consumer discretionary stocks are not guaranteed; the combination of high leverage, a below-200-day price, and 12% short interest creates a fragile technical situation where any earnings disappointment could trigger renewed selling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 69% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 6.2 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $10,665,225 (0.650% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.5 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.78
Upside
+11.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.65>1.3, MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.78 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.1, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Insider at 3.0, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The company beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 50%, including a 137% beat in the November 2025 quarter, indicating management is consistently setting achievable guidance targets.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the beat pattern has ended.
- P2Analysts maintain a consensus price target implying 43% upside from the current price of $20.77, with a combined analyst rating score of 7.17 out of 10, reflecting constructive views on the online luxury fashion market opportunity.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $22, less than 6% above the current $20.77, indicating analysts are materially cutting their estimates.
- P3The debt-to-equity ratio of 6.3 is elevated and creates a leverage penalty, but the company is in a recovery setup after a death cross with momentum improving and MACD turning positive, suggesting it may be at the early stages of a technical reversal.
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 8.0, more than 1.7 turns above the current 6.3, indicating leverage is increasing rather than declining.
- P4A death cross pattern is forming with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day, though MACD has turned positive and RSI is at 63, indicating mixed technical signals where improving short-term momentum is at odds with the longer-term trend breakdown.
Trip ifPrice falls below $17, more than 18% below the current $20.77, indicating the recovery setup has failed and a new downtrend has begun.