Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.00
QRVO · Why this verdict
Why Qorvo (QRVO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Qorvo is a semiconductor company with exceptional free cash flow conversion of 164% and a strong 3-for-4 earnings beat record, but a critical customer concentration of 50% with Apple Inc., declining revenue of -7%, and a stock trading above its analyst price target combine to eliminate the near-term investment case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With approximately 50% of revenue concentrated in Apple Inc. as disclosed in the 10-K, any shift in Apple's supply chain decisions, product mix changes, or component sourcing strategy poses an existential revenue risk to Qorvo's top line. Bear case | Revenue from non-Apple sources grows above 55% of total revenue within the next 12 months, reducing single-customer dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterApple relationships typically provide volume stability and multi-year design win visibility; losing Apple content is unlikely within a short window given the deep integration of Qorvo components in existing iPhone models. | ||
Qorvo converts 164% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that capital expenditures and working capital are well-managed and that reported earnings significantly understate actual cash returns to shareholders. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next two reported annual periods. | →Stable |
| CounterDeclining revenue of -7% and falling earnings estimates of -15% suggest that even strong cash conversion cannot offset the top-line erosion that is shrinking the absolute level of free cash flow. | ||
At $101.28 per share, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $107.30, producing only 5.9% upside to that level and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.84 — well below the 1.5 minimum threshold needed to justify new entry. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $120 following revenue stabilization. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative asymmetry of -2.2 as measured by the engine indicates the stock has already priced in recovery expectations, and any earnings disappointment could lead to a sharp correction. | ||
Earnings estimates have fallen -15% over the past 30 days, and the most recent quarter saw a -53.7% negative earnings surprise against an estimate of $0.69, reversing the prior trend of strong beats. Catalyst breakdown | Quarterly earnings estimates stabilize and stop declining for at least 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe three prior quarters showed beats of 742%, 5.1%, and 16.4%, and the single miss may reflect a specific one-time issue rather than a sustainable trend of estimate cuts. | ||
With approximately 50% of revenue concentrated in Apple Inc. as disclosed in the 10-K, any shift in Apple's supply chain decisions, product mix changes, or component sourcing strategy poses an existential revenue risk to Qorvo's top line.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue from non-Apple sources grows above 55% of total revenue within the next 12 months, reducing single-customer dependency.
CounterApple relationships typically provide volume stability and multi-year design win visibility; losing Apple content is unlikely within a short window given the deep integration of Qorvo components in existing iPhone models.
Qorvo converts 164% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that capital expenditures and working capital are well-managed and that reported earnings significantly understate actual cash returns to shareholders.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 130% for the next two reported annual periods.
CounterDeclining revenue of -7% and falling earnings estimates of -15% suggest that even strong cash conversion cannot offset the top-line erosion that is shrinking the absolute level of free cash flow.
At $101.28 per share, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $107.30, producing only 5.9% upside to that level and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.84 — well below the 1.5 minimum threshold needed to justify new entry.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $120 following revenue stabilization.
CounterNegative asymmetry of -2.2 as measured by the engine indicates the stock has already priced in recovery expectations, and any earnings disappointment could lead to a sharp correction.
Earnings estimates have fallen -15% over the past 30 days, and the most recent quarter saw a -53.7% negative earnings surprise against an estimate of $0.69, reversing the prior trend of strong beats.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly earnings estimates stabilize and stop declining for at least 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe three prior quarters showed beats of 742%, 5.1%, and 16.4%, and the single miss may reflect a specific one-time issue rather than a sustainable trend of estimate cuts.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.2 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 164% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.9 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-15.0%)
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $201,627,235 (2.357% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $80
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -15.0% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.71
Upside
-17.4%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.43>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.71 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.1, Catalyst at 6.5, and Value at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Momentum at 2.9, and Insider at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.71 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1With approximately 50% of revenue concentrated in Apple Inc. as disclosed in the 10-K, any shift in Apple's supply chain decisions, product mix changes, or component sourcing strategy poses an existential revenue risk to Qorvo's top line.
Trip ifRevenue concentration from a single customer exceeds 55% in any reported annual period.
- P2Qorvo converts 164% of net income into free cash flow, indicating that capital expenditures and working capital are well-managed and that reported earnings significantly understate actual cash returns to shareholders.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income in any reported period.
- P3At $101.28 per share, the stock trades above its near-term resistance target of $107.30, producing only 5.9% upside to that level and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.84 — well below the 1.5 minimum threshold needed to justify new entry.
Trip ifThe stock price rises above $115, extending the overshoot beyond analyst targets by more than 10%.
- P4Earnings estimates have fallen -15% over the past 30 days, and the most recent quarter saw a -53.7% negative earnings surprise against an estimate of $0.69, reversing the prior trend of strong beats.
Trip ifEarnings estimates decline by more than 20% in any single 30-day window.