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PSECProspect Capital CorporationHold5.7·$2.19
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Prospect Capital Corporation offers extreme value at 6.6x forward earnings with a 4-for-4 beat streak and 17.6% free cash flow yield, but is in a confirmed price downtrend with a 1.4%/month declining 200-day moving average slope and faces negative revenue growth of -12%, making the setup a deep value trap risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Declining Negative Growth→Stable
  • Deep Value Beat Streak→Stable
  • Confirmed Price Downtrend↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Prospect Capital Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that lends to and invests in privately-held U.S. middle-market companies, primarily through senior and secured first- and second-lien loans plus equity investments, with approximately $7 billion in total assets... Read more

$2.19-22.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#98 of 236 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield20.71%
IncomeYield19.35%(5y avg 14.04%)Payout866.67%at-risk
Stop $2.10Target $2.25(resistance)A.R:R -4.5:1
Analyst target$2.00-8.7%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Prospect Capital Corporation

About Prospect Capital Corporation

Prospect Capital Corporation held approximately $7 billion in total assets as of June 30, 2025, investing primarily in senior and secured first- and second-lien loans to privately-held U.S. middle-market companies with annual revenues below $750 million and enterprise values below $1 billion. The portfolio spans 32 industry categories, with no individual industry exceeding 19.5% of the portfolio on a cost or fair-value basis, and the company is regulated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

Prospect earns net investment income from interest, dividends, and fees on its debt and equity investments, structured as senior and secured loans typically under $250 million per deal, supplemented by a smaller allocation to CLO equity and junior debt tranches and controlling equity positions in real estate investment trusts held through National Property REIT Corp. The company is externally managed by Prospect Capital Management, which earns a base management fee equal to 2.00% annualized on gross assets plus a two-part incentive fee: 100% of net investment income between the 7.00% annualized hurdle rate and a catch-up threshold, 20% above that, and 20% of realized capital gains net of losses and unrealized depreciation at year-end. As a regulated investment company, Prospect must distribute most of its income to maintain its tax status, and it funds new investments partly with borrowed money, subject to a 150% asset-coverage requirement under the 1940 Act.

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Prospect's investment decisions run entirely through an external adviser rather than in-house staff, and the 10-K names two specific individuals — John F. Barry III and M. Grier Eliasek — whose departure it says 'could have a materially adverse effect' on the company's ability to achieve its investment objective; Mr. Barry also controls the adviser itself. That structural dependency compounds a separate concentration risk the filing discloses on the investment side: the portfolio contains a limited number of portfolio companies, some of which comprise a substantial percentage of the total, so a single borrower default carries a greater-than-typical loss risk for a BDC of Prospect's scale.

See also: Financial Services · Asset Management

From Prospect Capital Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.3
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn24.0%
ROE3.4%
Rev Growth-6.7%
Beta0.79
Dividend19.35%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV28%low

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -6.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.8
Declining revenue: -7%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -4.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.16Resistance $2.30

Price Targets

$2
$2
A.Upside-22.4%
A.R:R-4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PSEC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $2.25 (+2.7%), stop $2.10 (−4.3%), A.R:R -4.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PSEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $2.25 (-22.4% upside). Target $2.25 (+2.7%), stop $2.10 (−4.3%), A.R:R -4.5:1. Stop-loss: $2.10.

What are the risks of investing in PSEC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Below 200-day MA.

Is PSEC overvalued or undervalued?

Prospect Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 36.3 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PSEC?

6 analysts cover PSEC with a consensus score of 2.0/5. Average price target: $2.

What does Prospect Capital Corporation do?Prospect Capital Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that lends to and invests in privately-held U.S....

Prospect Capital Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that lends to and invests in privately-held U.S. middle-market companies, primarily through senior and secured first- and second-lien loans plus equity investments, with approximately $7 billion in total assets as of June 30, 2025. The company is externally managed by Prospect Capital Management, which earns a 2.00% annual base management fee on gross assets plus an incentive fee.

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