Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
- ▸Attractively valued
PNR · Why this verdict
Why Pentair (PNR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pentair is a high-quality water treatment and flow control industrial with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, a forward P/E of 12.8x, and best-in-class margins at 16%, offering 22.7% analyst upside — though it remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining 4.4% per month.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pentair ranks best-in-class among specialty industrial machinery peers on margins with 16% operating margins, a quality score of 6.9/10, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible — reflecting best-in-class financial health across all 9 dimensions including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains above 14% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterIndustrial machinery margins are sensitive to raw material input costs and pricing power — competition from lower-cost manufacturers in Asia could gradually erode the premium margin position that Pentair currently enjoys. | ||
Pentair has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.84%, with actual EPS ranging from $1.18 to $1.39 consistently above estimates — a steady beat pattern indicating reliable management execution and demand visibility in specialty industrial markets. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due approximately 35 days from now. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3.84% average positive surprise is modest and could reflect conservative guidance setting rather than genuine business outperformance; small beat margins are easily reversed by input cost shocks or customer capex deferrals. | ||
At a forward P/E of 12.8x and a PEG of 1.11 with 22.7% implied upside to the analyst price target of $91.05, Pentair is attractively priced relative to its quality level, and the risk/reward ratio of 4.54 is the second-best in this analysis batch. Valuation breakdown | The stock reaches the analyst price target range near $91 within 12 months as momentum recovers and the fundamental case is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak revenue growth at only a low single-digit rate (growth score of 3.8/10) means the forward P/E of 12.8x may not be as cheap as it appears — earnings growth is not strong enough to justify material multiple expansion. | ||
The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month in a death-cross pattern, with the stock below its long-term trend, constraining when the fundamental case can be expressed — the recovery setup requires technical confirmation before adding meaningful risk. Warnings | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds above it for 15 consecutive trading days, confirming trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterThe MACD is already improving and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests buying pressure is building beneath the surface — the technical downtrend may be closer to resolution than the death-cross pattern implies. | ||
Pentair ranks best-in-class among specialty industrial machinery peers on margins with 16% operating margins, a quality score of 6.9/10, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible — reflecting best-in-class financial health across all 9 dimensions including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above 14% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters.
CounterIndustrial machinery margins are sensitive to raw material input costs and pricing power — competition from lower-cost manufacturers in Asia could gradually erode the premium margin position that Pentair currently enjoys.
Pentair has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.84%, with actual EPS ranging from $1.18 to $1.39 consistently above estimates — a steady beat pattern indicating reliable management execution and demand visibility in specialty industrial markets.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due approximately 35 days from now.
CounterA 3.84% average positive surprise is modest and could reflect conservative guidance setting rather than genuine business outperformance; small beat margins are easily reversed by input cost shocks or customer capex deferrals.
At a forward P/E of 12.8x and a PEG of 1.11 with 22.7% implied upside to the analyst price target of $91.05, Pentair is attractively priced relative to its quality level, and the risk/reward ratio of 4.54 is the second-best in this analysis batch.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches the analyst price target range near $91 within 12 months as momentum recovers and the fundamental case is recognized.
CounterWeak revenue growth at only a low single-digit rate (growth score of 3.8/10) means the forward P/E of 12.8x may not be as cheap as it appears — earnings growth is not strong enough to justify material multiple expansion.
The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month in a death-cross pattern, with the stock below its long-term trend, constraining when the fundamental case can be expressed — the recovery setup requires technical confirmation before adding meaningful risk.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average within 6 months and holds above it for 15 consecutive trading days, confirming trend reversal.
CounterThe MACD is already improving and volume accumulation (rising on-balance volume) suggests buying pressure is building beneath the surface — the technical downtrend may be closer to resolution than the death-cross pattern implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 4.6 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 5.8 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 3.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 142.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.44
Upside
+19.7%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.2; weakest: Technical at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Growth at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Pentair has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 3.84%, with actual EPS ranging from $1.18 to $1.39 consistently above estimates — a steady beat pattern indicating reliable management execution and demand visibility in specialty industrial markets.
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P2Pentair ranks best-in-class among specialty industrial machinery peers on margins with 16% operating margins, a quality score of 6.9/10, and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — the highest possible — reflecting best-in-class financial health across all 9 dimensions including profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3At a forward P/E of 12.8x and a PEG of 1.11 with 22.7% implied upside to the analyst price target of $91.05, Pentair is attractively priced relative to its quality level, and the risk/reward ratio of 4.54 is the second-best in this analysis batch.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $75, implying less than 1% upside from current price and a fundamental re-rating lower.
- P4The 200-day moving average is declining at 4.4% per month in a death-cross pattern, with the stock below its long-term trend, constraining when the fundamental case can be expressed — the recovery setup requires technical confirmation before adding meaningful risk.
Trip ifStock price drops below $62, exceeding a 16% decline from current levels and accelerating below key technical support zones.