Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.15
- ▸Attractively valued
PHM · Why this verdict
Why PulteGroup (PHM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
- ▸Volume surge (3.1x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,286,104 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.4 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.38
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 82.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-5.4%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.49 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.8, Value at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.