Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 2.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.5x
- ▸PEG: 4.27
PG · Why this verdict
Why Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Procter & Gamble has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, generates a 31% ROE with a wide economic moat, and exhibits strong momentum with rising on-balance volume, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with -2.2% upside and carries significant geographic and supplier concentration risks.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Procter & Gamble generates a 31% return on equity with 19% operating margins and ranks in the top decile of consumer staple peers on both ROE and margin quality, demonstrating durable pricing power across its household brands. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 28% and operating margins stay above 17% over the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 31% ROE is substantially driven by financial leverage; stripping out debt effects, the underlying return on assets is more modest, and margin pressure from commodity input costs could compress results faster than expected. | ||
Procter & Gamble has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 most recent quarters with an average upside surprise of 3.1%, combined with a wide economic moat score of 7.6 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, marking it as a high-quality compounder. Catalyst breakdown | EPS beats continue in all 4 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 2% and the moat score stays above 7.0. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall but consistent earnings beats in large-cap consumer staples often reflect conservative guidance practices rather than genuine outperformance; the 3.1% average is modest and could be disrupted by a single quarter of volume weakness. | ||
Procter & Gamble has high-priority concentration risks in non-US operations and single-source suppliers for key inputs, creating two structural vulnerabilities to geopolitical disruption and supply chain shocks. Bear case | Neither concentration risk results in material revenue or margin impact of more than 3% in any single reported quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterPG's global footprint spanning 180+ countries is among the most diversified in consumer staples; geographic concentration is relative and the company has decades of experience managing FX and geopolitical risks. | ||
The stock is priced above the analyst resistance target of $148.47 at $150.46, offering -2.2% implied upside while the 7.7% downside to the stop-loss creates an unfavorable risk/reward profile at current entry levels. Warnings | Analyst targets are revised upward above $165 within 12 months as the earnings beat streak continues and volume trends normalize. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge-cap consumer staple stocks regularly trade above analyst targets due to their defensive premium; institutional demand and index weighting can sustain above-target prices for extended periods. | ||
Procter & Gamble generates a 31% return on equity with 19% operating margins and ranks in the top decile of consumer staple peers on both ROE and margin quality, demonstrating durable pricing power across its household brands.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 28% and operating margins stay above 17% over the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterA 31% ROE is substantially driven by financial leverage; stripping out debt effects, the underlying return on assets is more modest, and margin pressure from commodity input costs could compress results faster than expected.
Procter & Gamble has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 most recent quarters with an average upside surprise of 3.1%, combined with a wide economic moat score of 7.6 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, marking it as a high-quality compounder.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in all 4 of the next 4 quarters with average positive surprise above 2% and the moat score stays above 7.0.
CounterSmall but consistent earnings beats in large-cap consumer staples often reflect conservative guidance practices rather than genuine outperformance; the 3.1% average is modest and could be disrupted by a single quarter of volume weakness.
Procter & Gamble has high-priority concentration risks in non-US operations and single-source suppliers for key inputs, creating two structural vulnerabilities to geopolitical disruption and supply chain shocks.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Neither concentration risk results in material revenue or margin impact of more than 3% in any single reported quarter.
CounterPG's global footprint spanning 180+ countries is among the most diversified in consumer staples; geographic concentration is relative and the company has decades of experience managing FX and geopolitical risks.
The stock is priced above the analyst resistance target of $148.47 at $150.46, offering -2.2% implied upside while the 7.7% downside to the stop-loss creates an unfavorable risk/reward profile at current entry levels.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised upward above $165 within 12 months as the earnings beat streak continues and volume trends normalize.
CounterLarge-cap consumer staple stocks regularly trade above analyst targets due to their defensive premium; institutional demand and index weighting can sustain above-target prices for extended periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.2 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 9.6 |
| Current ratio | 2.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.8 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 77% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $85
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 280.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=7.5>=7.5+momentum=6.6>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.28
Upside
-2.1%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityCONSERVATIVE — Beta 0.39<0.8, Div 280.0%, Q=7.5
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6; weakest: Growth at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, Quality at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 3.8, Technical at 4.4, and Value at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Procter & Gamble has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 most recent quarters with an average upside surprise of 3.1%, combined with a wide economic moat score of 7.6 and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, marking it as a high-quality compounder.
Trip ifEPS falls below $1.45 per quarter for 2 consecutive quarters, declining more than 8% below the current $1.59-$1.99 recent delivery range.
- P2Procter & Gamble generates a 31% return on equity with 19% operating margins and ranks in the top decile of consumer staple peers on both ROE and margin quality, demonstrating durable pricing power across its household brands.
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 15% for 2 consecutive reported quarters, indicating a decline of more than 4 percentage points from current levels.
- P3Procter & Gamble has high-priority concentration risks in non-US operations and single-source suppliers for key inputs, creating two structural vulnerabilities to geopolitical disruption and supply chain shocks.
Trip ifA geopolitical event or supply chain disruption causes disclosed revenue impact exceeding 3% in any single reported quarter.
- P4The stock is priced above the analyst resistance target of $148.47 at $150.46, offering -2.2% implied upside while the 7.7% downside to the stop-loss creates an unfavorable risk/reward profile at current entry levels.
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $138, reducing implied forward upside to less than 0% and signaling a fundamental re-rating downward.