Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
PFGC · Why this verdict
Why Performance Food Group (PFGC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Performance Food Group converts income to free cash flow at 224% and carries strong earnings growth potential, but quality scores fall below minimum thresholds at 3.6 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and prices are at analyst resistance with no upside remaining.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Overall quality scores of 3.6 fall below the 4.0 minimum threshold required for a sustainable investment thesis, driven by near-zero operating and gross margins and the absence of a competitive moat in food distribution. Warnings | Quality score improves above 4.0 within 12 months as margin initiatives or volume growth drive operating leverage improvement. | →Stable |
| CounterFood distribution inherently operates on thin margins due to commodity pass-through; the quality score threshold may be poorly calibrated for this sector's structural economics. | ||
Performance Food Group converts net income to free cash flow at 224%, meaning actual cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings, a strong signal of capital efficiency in a food distribution business. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next 4 fiscal quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterVery high FCF-to-income ratios in food distribution often reflect aggressive working capital management or deferred capex; if maintenance spending is underfunded, the conversion rate will normalize downward. | ||
Performance Food Group has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters including misses of -10%, -2.3%, and -20.7%, suggesting systematic difficulty in meeting analyst expectations in the current operating environment. Earnings | The company returns to EPS beats in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the current 3-out-of-4 miss pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterFood distribution is a thin-margin business where small input cost fluctuations can cause EPS misses relative to analyst models; the recent beat in Q1 2026 may signal the miss streak has turned. | ||
With the stock priced above resistance at $104.10 versus a take-profit target of $103.88, upside is effectively -0.2% while downside to stop-loss is 5.6%, providing an unfavorable risk/reward ratio at current entry points. Bear case | Analyst targets are revised upward above $115 within 12 months if earnings stabilize and quality metrics begin improving. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for mid-cap food distributors are frequently conservative and reset quickly on volume growth beats; a single strong quarter could prompt multiple simultaneous target upgrades. | ||
Overall quality scores of 3.6 fall below the 4.0 minimum threshold required for a sustainable investment thesis, driven by near-zero operating and gross margins and the absence of a competitive moat in food distribution.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 4.0 within 12 months as margin initiatives or volume growth drive operating leverage improvement.
CounterFood distribution inherently operates on thin margins due to commodity pass-through; the quality score threshold may be poorly calibrated for this sector's structural economics.
Performance Food Group converts net income to free cash flow at 224%, meaning actual cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings, a strong signal of capital efficiency in a food distribution business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% of net income over the next 4 fiscal quarters.
CounterVery high FCF-to-income ratios in food distribution often reflect aggressive working capital management or deferred capex; if maintenance spending is underfunded, the conversion rate will normalize downward.
Performance Food Group has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters including misses of -10%, -2.3%, and -20.7%, suggesting systematic difficulty in meeting analyst expectations in the current operating environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to EPS beats in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, reversing the current 3-out-of-4 miss pattern.
CounterFood distribution is a thin-margin business where small input cost fluctuations can cause EPS misses relative to analyst models; the recent beat in Q1 2026 may signal the miss streak has turned.
With the stock priced above resistance at $104.10 versus a take-profit target of $103.88, upside is effectively -0.2% while downside to stop-loss is 5.6%, providing an unfavorable risk/reward ratio at current entry points.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised upward above $115 within 12 months if earnings stabilize and quality metrics begin improving.
CounterAnalyst targets for mid-cap food distributors are frequently conservative and reset quickly on volume growth beats; a single strong quarter could prompt multiple simultaneous target upgrades.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 224% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 76 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $12,430,725 (0.076% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 3.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $80
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.20
Upside
-2.4%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 7.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.0, Sentiment at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Quality at 3.6, and Catalyst at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Performance Food Group converts net income to free cash flow at 224%, meaning actual cash generation substantially exceeds reported earnings, a strong signal of capital efficiency in a food distribution business.
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Performance Food Group has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters including misses of -10%, -2.3%, and -20.7%, suggesting systematic difficulty in meeting analyst expectations in the current operating environment.
Trip ifEarnings misses exceed 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the current pattern rather than improving.
- P3Overall quality scores of 3.6 fall below the 4.0 minimum threshold required for a sustainable investment thesis, driven by near-zero operating and gross margins and the absence of a competitive moat in food distribution.
Trip ifQuality score remains below 3.5 for 2 consecutive evaluation periods with operating margin staying below 1%.
- P4With the stock priced above resistance at $104.10 versus a take-profit target of $103.88, upside is effectively -0.2% while downside to stop-loss is 5.6%, providing an unfavorable risk/reward ratio at current entry points.
Trip ifStock price falls below $92, declining more than 11% below current levels and breaching major support.