Should you buy Patrick Industries (PATK)?
Updated
Patrick Industries has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 8.6%, and trades at a PEG of 0.27 with 21% analyst upside, though a confirmed death cross and declining revenue trend present near-term technical headwinds.
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Engine methodology range
Range computation requires sufficient peer-comparable data; available for tickers with peer_count ≥3.
What the engine is tracking
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain. Catalyst breakdown | The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining its delivery track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 4-quarter beat streak may reflect conservatively set estimates rather than genuine outperformance; the recreational vehicle market faces cyclical volume risk as consumer discretionary spending tightens. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104. Valuation breakdown | Price reaches above $100 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward analyst targets. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declined 1% in the most recent period and no clear competitive moat is identified, which limits the case for sustained multiple expansion. | ||
Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume trend remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months, indicating sustained institutional buying. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping down at 1.8% per month, meaning accumulation alone may not be sufficient to reverse price momentum. | ||
Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain.
→Stable- Expectation
- The company continues to beat consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining its delivery track record.
CounterThe 4-quarter beat streak may reflect conservatively set estimates rather than genuine outperformance; the recreational vehicle market faces cyclical volume risk as consumer discretionary spending tightens.
At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104.
→Stable- Expectation
- Price reaches above $100 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward analyst targets.
CounterRevenue declined 1% in the most recent period and no clear competitive moat is identified, which limits the case for sustained multiple expansion.
Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal.
→Stable- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend remains positive for at least 6 of the next 12 months, indicating sustained institutional buying.
CounterPrice remains in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average sloping down at 1.8% per month, meaning accumulation alone may not be sufficient to reverse price momentum.
▸ Show 1 more pillar▾ Show fewer
Patrick Industries pays a dividend with coverage at 218%, providing an income floor that supports valuation and signals management confidence in cash generation sustainability.
→Stable- Expectation
- Dividend payout is maintained or increased over the next 12 months without a cut, sustaining the income floor.
CounterWith revenue declining and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x, dividend sustainability depends on continued earnings stability in a potentially weakening recreational vehicle demand environment.
→ Full pillar scorecard with all 4 pillars + per-dimension breakdown
When this thesis breaks
Falsifiable conditions per pillar — any one trip warrants review independent of price action. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Patrick Industries has beaten Wall Street earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 8.6%, demonstrating consistent operational outperformance in the recreational vehicle supply chain.
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the streak below the prior outperformance pattern.
- P2At a PEG ratio of 0.27 and forward P/E of 14.5x, Patrick Industries is priced well below its earnings growth rate, with analyst consensus implying 21% upside to roughly $104.
Trip ifPrice drops below $75 and holds below that level for more than 10 trading days, invalidating the analyst upside thesis.
- P3Rising on-balance volume indicates that buying pressure is building even as price remains below the 200-day moving average, suggesting accumulation ahead of a potential trend reversal.
Trip ifOn-balance volume declines for more than 3 consecutive months, indicating the accumulation thesis has reversed.
- P4Patrick Industries pays a dividend with coverage at 218%, providing an income floor that supports valuation and signals management confidence in cash generation sustainability.
Trip ifDividend per share decreases by more than 20% from the current level in any single quarter.
How the engine reached this verdict
TrendMatrix's engine output for Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) is SELL_IF_HOLDING with medium conviction, score 5.7/10 at $93.02. The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. Asymmetry R:R of 1.12 is supplementary context, not the trigger.
The engine's exit framework anchors to a tactical sell band near $93.02, with structural invalidation at $86.06. The asymmetric R:R against a reversal hypothesis is 1.77 — the upside scenario exists, but it requires multiple structural gates to flip; the downside scenario requires only one more disappointment. The engine's sizing output: 0.5% of portfolio at this asymmetry level (none-conviction tier).
On the bull side: Strong earnings beat streak (4/4); Attractive valuation. On the bear side: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Active engine warnings: V9 Gate Failed: ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot.
The dominant failed gate is reward-to-risk at 1.1 vs threshold 1.5. SELL flips back toward HOLD if reward-to-risk recovers above its threshold AND a co-failing gate also clears. The strongest-cleared gate today is MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5.
For the full 10-dimension breakdown + V9 gate detail: Why TrendMatrix rates PATK — 10-dimension breakdown →
Bull case
- ▸Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
- ▸Attractive valuation
Bear case
- ▸Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)