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Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-08). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream infrastructure systems in the United States and Canada. It operates through Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) segments. The company engages in the gathering... Read more

$24.35-1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#34 of 41 Oil & Gas Midstream
Stop $23.57Target $24.01(resistance)A.R:R -2.4:1
Analyst target$22.93-5.8%14 analysts
$24.01our TP
$24.35price
$22.93mean
$18
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: PAA distributions
Target reached (-18.1% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.4
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn0.6%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth-12.2%
Beta0.46
Dividend6.59%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.45bullish
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerPAA distributions
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our cash flow will be entirely dependent upon the ability of PAA to make cash distributions to AAP, and the ability of AAP to make cash distributions to us'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
1.6
Value Rank
5.3

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.3
Operating Margin
1.4
Roa
2.0
Roe
3.0
Current Ratio
3.8
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 301% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -2.4=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.50Resistance $24.50

Price Targets

$24
$24
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-08 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAGP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.35: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $23.57. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAGP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.01 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $23.57. Stop-loss: $23.57.

What are the risks of investing in PAGP?

Concentration risk — Customer: PAA distributions; Target reached (-18.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is PAGP overvalued or undervalued?

Plains GP Holdings, L.P. trades at a P/E of 31.4 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAGP?

21 analysts cover PAGP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Plains GP Holdings, L.P. do?Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream...

Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream infrastructure systems in the United States and Canada. It operates through Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) segments. The company engages in the gathering and transporting crude oil using pipelines, trucks, and barges or railcars. It also provides terminalling, storage, and other related services. In addition, the company is involved in the natural gas processing and NGL fractionation, storage, transportation, and terminalling activities. PAA GP Holdings LLC operates as a general partner of the company. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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